EoW March 2013

The International Monetary Fund foresees modest global economic growth, with fewer risks of major policy mistakes and less nancial stress. The organisation said in January that it expects to see amodest upturn in global growth this year of 3.5 per cent and then 4.1 per cent in 2014, up from 3.2 per cent in 2012. Still, the IMF — the global economy’s lender of last resort to countries in crisis — noted that nancial stresses and the risk of amajor policy shock inEurope and the United States have decreased. “Optimism is in the air,” said Olivier Blanchard, the fund’s chief economist.“Some cautious optimismmay indeed be justi ed.” Mr Blanchard noted that nancial markets have become considerably more sanguine over the last year, with the EuropeanCentral Bank starting amajor new bond-buying programme and the US avoiding the worst of the so-called scal cli package of tax increases and budget cuts. While that could be a sign that nancial markets are experiencing some kind of “bubble,” Mr Blanchard also said that investors couldbe“seeing thingswhich are truly good.” Ultimately, with less nancial stress, the real economy shouldpick up, thus explaining the market optimism, he said. ForWashington, priorities recommended by the IMF would be to avoid excessive scal consolidation in the short term and promptly raise the debt ceiling. Christine Lagarde, the fund’s managing director, and other IMFo cialshave repeatedlywarnedpoliticians in Washington not to embark on too stringent an austerity programme, for the good of the world economy as well as that of the United States. Thomas Helbling, of the fund’s research division, said that the US faces a long-term scal problem, Modest growth and far fewer risks

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with much of the policy challenge resting in bringing down health care spending over time. But he said that the challenge seemed “doable,” and stressed that other countries faced far more wrenchingadjustments.

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