ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2017 - 2026 / Southern Corridor / Main Report

3.3.2 Forecast peak daily demand

Daily peak demand is of vital importance, as it is the main criterion for network design. The chart below shows the historical Regional aggregated peak demand over the last 4 years. This demand is the sum of national peak demand days during the last four years that may have occurred on different days in each country. The tables below show the comparison between the Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023, and Southern Corridor GRIP 2017– 2026 data. It results that the forecasted peak demand has been reassessed in the two consecutive investment plans, following the trend of the average demand established in the last years.

10,000 GWh/y Peak Demand

Actual

Forecast

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 2,000 1,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

0

2013

2015 2014

2019 2018 2017 2016 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Southern Corridor GRIP 2014

Southern Corridor GRIP 2017

Figure 3.10: Southern Corridor peak demand comparison between the SC GRIP 2014 – 2023 and SC GRIP 2017– 2026

Peak demand forecasts show a decrease consistent with annual demand revisions, but their contractions are relatively less important as the percentage decreases of peak demand are about half of the corresponding reductions of the total demand. This means that the gas infrastructures are still key and necessary for reasons of security of supply and market integration as well as for supporting the increase of the use of RES in the power production.

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Difference (TWh) −545 −563 −504 −462 −389 −365 −348

Difference (%)

−7% −7% −6% −5% −5% −4% −4%

Table 3.3: Decrease of peak demand daily forecast between GRIP 2014 – 2023 and GRIP 2017– 2026

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026