ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2017 - 2026 / Southern Corridor / Main Report

4.1 National Production

Gas from national production still plays an important role in some countries of the Southern Corridor Region, especially in Romania where coverage of yearly demand by national production is expected to be 79% in 2017 and 104% in 2026, Croatia (52% in 2017 and 14% in 2026), Bulgaria (2% in 2017 and 35% in 2026), Austria (15% in 2017 and in 2026), Italy (12% in 2017 and 14% in 2026) and Hungary (19% in 2017 and 9% in 2026). By 2026, Romania will still be the major producer in the Region, among the countries already having a national production, with 46% of the Region’s production closely followed by Italy with 41%. In 2015 the share of gas for national production has covered 22% of the overall Southern Corridor demand as shown in Figure 4.1. Figure 4.2 shows the participation of each country in the national production of the Region in 2015. The increase in above percentag- es may come from the introduction of biogas (as in the case of Italy) and/or the exploitation of new fields (as in the case of Romania).

1,000 800 600 400 200 1,200 1,400 1,600 TWh/d

Austria

6

5

0 0

Romania Italy Austria Hungary Croatia Bulgaria Slovakia

13

45

%

31

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Imports

Indigenous production

Figure 4.1: Part of gas imports in total consumption (Source: TYNDP 2017, ENTSOG)

Figure 4.2: Share of national production on the total

Regional indigenous productions by country in 2015 (Source: TYNDP 2017, ENTSOG)

Although the part of National production in the gas mix of the Region has been decreasing for a number of years, the forecast indicates a stabilisation due to the recent discoveries in the Black Sea expected to go on stream in the early ‘20s. The trend will even be reversed if and when the off-shore gas fields in Cyprus will enter production phase. Unlike the national production of the other European countries, where this is primarily used to satisfy national demand (or part of it), the production of Cyprus will greatly exceed its consumption even taking into account the commis- sioning of gas fired power plants, presently planned to enter in operation by 2020   1) , and any other use that will be developed, given that no gas is presently used on the island. Figure 4.3 shows the impact on the gas production from Cyprus on the SC Region national production, from 2022 onwards. This impact will make the SC Region national production jump from a 25% share of the EU national production, to 35%.

 1) Operation should be first based on imported LNG

Southern Corridor GRIP 2017–2026 |

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