ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

3.3 DemandForecasts

The objective of this section is to show themost updated trend of the long term demand scenarios for the South Region and to provide an analysis of deviations in comparisonwith the long term forecast included in the TYNDP2013–2022.

3.3.1 YearlyDemand

The macroeconomic scenarios underlying the natural gas demand projections of both studies, TYNDP 2013–2022 and GRIP, already incorporate the most recent expected trends for the economic activity. For the South Region, total demand is set to increase over the next ten years, as shown in Figure 3.12.

Yearly demand

1,200 TWh/y

1,200 TWh/y

by country

by sector

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

0

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

France

Portugal

Spain

Conventionel Demand (GRIP) TYNDP 2013–2022

Power Generation (GRIP)

TYNDP 2013–2022

Figure 3.12: Yearly gas demand for the South Region – breakdown by country (right) and by sector (left)

Regarding the Conventional sector: \\ GRTgaz is using a bottom-up approach to evaluate the evolution of the demand in theconventional sector (residential, commercial and industry). Typeof build- ing, segment of activities and energy uses considering competition with other energies are taken into account. InFrance, the conventional sector is down es- pecially in the Industry andCommercial sector, due to the economic context in WesternEurope and inFrance. Taking this into account, it leads to some slight differencesbetween thecurrent demand scenarios for theGRIP (established in July2013) and thosepresented in theTYNDP2013–2022 (established in July 2012). \\ TIGFhasnot exactly the sameapproachasGRTgaz.However, as expected, the same trends appears in TIGF’s area. There are also some differences betweenGRIP and TYNDP. As a result, Conventional demand in France in the current scenario is slightly lower than in the TYNDP because final values for 2012 have been lower than the forecasts with a stronger effect of the crisis. \\ In Spain the figures published in the TYNDP 2013–2022 associated to this sector aremaintained, since the forecasts are accurate for the actual situation.

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ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022