ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

Portugal

TWh/y

Concerning gas demand for power generation in Portugal, projectedconsumptionsarebasedon the re- sultsof thenational studiesperformedbyREN for long term security of supply assessment purposes. With this regard, schedule of new CCGT power plants (as well as of decommissioning of old power plants) has not changed, which contributes to themaintenance of the similarity of both scenarios of gas consumption. This schedule explains the increase in gas consump- tion forecasted for the years 2017 and2018, and from 2021 to 2022. On the other hand, the trend of in- crease forecasted for the renewable installed capacity (RES) and the net import/export balance in the inter- connectionswithSpain explains the slight decrease in gas consumption for the years 2015, 2016, 2020 and 2021.

30

25

20

15

10

0

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Power Generation (GRIP)

TYNDP 2013–2022

Figure 3.17: Portugal – Yearly gas demand for power genera- tion in the TYNDP 2013–2022 vs. GRIP

Spain

Taking intoaccount the sharpdropof natural gasconsumption for combinedcycles inSpain, in the last two years, more pronounced in the current year, there has been a review of the Spanish figures of Natural gas to power generation published in the TYNDP 2013–2022.

Spanish background The Spanish energy picture has changeddue to several factors, among which stands out the drop in electricity demand , which neither has been recovered since 2008, nor expected to recover in the short term. (There has been an annual average decrease of around1.5% in electricity demand.)

50 %

50 %

generation vs. electricity demand

annual wind load-factor

46%

40

40

28%

30

30

24%

20

20

22%

17%

10

10

4%

0

0

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2002

2002

Wind load-factor (2013 estimated)

Wind generation vs electricity demand Special regimen generation vs electricity demand

Figure 3.18: Spanish evolution of percentage of Special Regime generation vs. total electricity demand and annual wind load- factor Special Regime: Those technologies under a system of incentives, to place them in a position of competition in a free market. Currently, themain technologies under the special regime are: wind, solar, CHP.

ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022 |

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