ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report
The assumptions carried out for the review analysis, has considered as the main driver for generating the final scenarios, the economic recovery, that implies different electricity demand growth rates and different develop- ment of theRenewable sources. It has been considered twomore reasonable alternatives: \\ First one isconsideringa slowprogressionof theeconomy, that implies slowelectricitydemandevolutionand low Special Regime (wind and solar) development, \\ Second one is considering an accelerate recovery of the economy: that implies high electricity demand evolution and high Special Regime (wind and solar) development.
ElectricityDemandEvolution
High
Low
Competitive gas price related to coal
Competitive gas price related to coal
Price equilibrium
Price equilibrium
High
Competitive coal price related to gas
Competitive coal price related to gas
12 Scenarios Evolution
Competitive gas price related to coal
Competitive gas price related to coal
Low SpecialRegime Evolution
Price equilibrium
Price equilibrium
(WindandSolar)
Competitive coal price related to gas
Competitive coal price related to gas
Figure 3.19: Spain –Gas for power generation yearly scenarios
160 TWh/y
It should be highlighted that gas demand for power generation for the next 10 year periodwill be a combi- nation of these scenarios. In order to determine a new trendof annual gas for power generationevolution, the final proposal contemplates a scenario that: \\ in the short term (2014–2015), a slow progres- sion of the economy that implies LOW electricity demand growth and LOWwind and solar devel- opment. \\ from 2016, the economy starts amoderate recovery, to achieve in 2020 an accelerated evolution that impliesHIGH electricity demand growth andHighwind and solar development tomeet the EU2020 target. Comparingbothprojections, it is shown that in thefirst years of the horizon, the current projections are lower than the ones of TYNDP 2013–2022, but from 2018, considering competitive gas price, and an accelerated progressionof theeconomy,weachieve thefigures set up on TYNDP 2013–2022.
120
80
40
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Power Generation (GRIP)
TYNDP 2013–2022
Figure 3.20: Spain – Yearly gas demand for power generation in the TYNDP 2013–2022 vs. GRIP
ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022 |
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