ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

The assumptions carried out for the review analysis, has considered as the main driver for generating the final scenarios, the economic recovery, that implies different electricity demand growth rates and different develop- ment of theRenewable sources. It has been considered twomore reasonable alternatives: \\ First one isconsideringa slowprogressionof theeconomy, that implies slowelectricitydemandevolutionand low Special Regime (wind and solar) development, \\ Second one is considering an accelerate recovery of the economy: that implies high electricity demand evolution and high Special Regime (wind and solar) development.

ElectricityDemandEvolution

High

Low

Competitive gas price related to coal

Competitive gas price related to coal

Price equilibrium

Price equilibrium

High

Competitive coal price related to gas

Competitive coal price related to gas

12 Scenarios Evolution

Competitive gas price related to coal

Competitive gas price related to coal

Low SpecialRegime Evolution

Price equilibrium

Price equilibrium

(WindandSolar)

Competitive coal price related to gas

Competitive coal price related to gas

Figure 3.19: Spain –Gas for power generation yearly scenarios

160 TWh/y

It should be highlighted that gas demand for power generation for the next 10 year periodwill be a combi- nation of these scenarios. In order to determine a new trendof annual gas for power generationevolution, the final proposal contemplates a scenario that: \\ in the short term (2014–2015), a slow progres- sion of the economy that implies LOW electricity demand growth and LOWwind and solar devel- opment. \\ from 2016, the economy starts amoderate recovery, to achieve in 2020 an accelerated evolution that impliesHIGH electricity demand growth andHighwind and solar development tomeet the EU2020 target. Comparingbothprojections, it is shown that in thefirst years of the horizon, the current projections are lower than the ones of TYNDP 2013–2022, but from 2018, considering competitive gas price, and an accelerated progressionof theeconomy,weachieve thefigures set up on TYNDP 2013–2022.

120

80

40

0

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Power Generation (GRIP)

TYNDP 2013–2022

Figure 3.20: Spain – Yearly gas demand for power generation in the TYNDP 2013–2022 vs. GRIP

ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022 |

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