ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

Spain

3,000 GWh/d

For the calculation of the high daily demand, the same methodology used for the yearly demand forecast has been implemented, with the only differ- ence that it has been only considered the scenario of competitive natural gas Price related to coal. This ismainly due to the fact that the design of infra- structures should be enough to face up to the most critical situation, so the highest possible scenario has to be taken into account.

by sector

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0

Conventional Demand (GRIP) Conventional Demand (TYNDP 2013–2022)

Power Generation (GRIP) Power Generation (TYNDP 2013–2022)

Figure 3.24: High daily demand: design case Spain –HDDDesign Case TYNDP 2013–2022 vs. GRIPs

Demand under UniformRisk Situation (1-day, 14-days) In addition to the 1-day Design Case Situation, another high daily demand was defined inTYNDP2013–2022: theDemandunder 1-dayofUniformRiskSituation. To define this demand a temperature database (coming from the European Commission) was used, with the effective daily temperature of each country, from January1975 toDecember 2011.Using thisdatabase, the yearlyminimumeffective temperaturewas calculated for eachcountry. It was alsodefinedaharmonizedRisk Situation of 1-in-20 climatic (temperature) condition. The 1-day Uniform Risk Temperature is defined by the percentile 0.05 (1/20) of the yearlyminimum effec- tive temperature, for eachcountry. For thecalculationof theUniformRiskSituation, the gas demand is supposed to have a direct linkwith the temperature. According- ly, theDemand of 1-dayUniformRiskSituation is the gasdemand corresponding to the 1-dayUniformRisk Temperature. TheDemand of 1-dayUniformRisk Situation for the EU-27 is calculated as the aggregation of the national 1-day Uniform Risk Situations. On theotherhand, as thegasdemand forpower generationhasnot adirect linkwith the temperature, this methodology is only suitable for the conventional gas demand (Industrial+Residential+Commercial). It is not only the level of demand, but also the availability of supply sources in the entry points aswell as the transmission capacitywhich challenge system operation. Theavailabilityor lackof availabilityof supply isusually impactedby theduration for whichhigh levelsof gasconsumptionsaresustained.On thisbasis, ENTSOGTYNDP 2013–2022has also estimated a 14-day period as significant for the definition of a long period of high demand testing the resilience needs of the system. Theobjectiveof thecalculationof thesedifferent demands is tocarry out anassess- ment of the gas network under different level of demand associated to different levels of supply. The 14-days Uniform Risk Situation was calculated using the same statistical ap- proach defined for the 1-day Uniform Risk Situation, but taking the average of 14 consecutivedays of effective temperature instead of thedaily effective temperature. TheEU-2714-daysUniformRiskSituationwas calculated as the aggregation of the national 14-daysUniformRisk Situations.

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ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022