ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

3.3.3 Yearlymodulation factor

Figure 3.26 shows the evolution of the yearly modu­ lation factor, calculated as the relation between the average demand and the peak demand (design case) and for theSouthRegion, France, Portugal andSpain. The yearlymodulation factor of theSouthRegion isex- pected to remain stable after a decrease in2014. In France, the demand of the conventional sector is foreseen to slightly decrease, due to the residential and commercial sector (heating uses) and the results of the environmental regulation (buildings isolation, etc.), even if thegasdemandof the industrial sector is foreseen to increase. The forecast of the power gener- ation sector is more optimistic with new projects of combined gas cycle turbine power plants (CCGTs). Themodulation factor of the residential and commer- cial sector is far lower than themodulation factor of the industrial and power generation sectors; consequent- ly, the global evolution of the load factor for France is an increase. InPortugal, thedemandof theconventional sectorwill continue to increase at higher rates that the rest of the economy of the country due to a still ongoing natural gas penetration in the energymix of the country, both in terms of natural gas consumption per capita and natural gas intensity in GDP, but also due to new in- dustrial gas consumers. The yearly modulation factor is expected to increase, although changes in this pat- tern canhappendue to the volatility of the natural gas demand for power generation. The estimated yearly modulation factor decreases in Spain after 2018 due to the increase of residential and commercial sector, and also due to the expected increase in the power generation sector in the coming years. We can see in Figure 3.26 that, in spite of the evolu- tions of the national yearly modulation factors, the Regional yearly modulation factor remains stable after 2018. This fact indicates possible positive syner- gies in terms of system flexibility in the Region, which could be facilitatedwithmore integration between the different systems.

Average demand/peak demand (design case)

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0

France

Portugal

Spain

SouthRegion

Figure 3.26: Evolution of the yearlymodulation factor, for the South Region, France, Portugal and Spain (Source: own calculation, using data for GRIPs)

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ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022