ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

Further analysis of the results of the simulations indicates: \\ Figure 6.8 highlights the role played by the infrastructure cross border projects creating new capacity between Spain and France reducing the lack of resilience to low LNG delivery in the IberianPeninsula: –– The on-going developments of the interconnectionpoints related to the WesternAxis (Larrau, Biriatou andGuyenne subprojects) reduce the requirements of theminimum LNG Terminal Send-out delivery. –– Regarding n-FID projects, the lack of resilience to low LNGdelivery in Spainwould be improved byMidCat project as well the reinforcement in the French core network in the EasternAxis. The reduction of the lack of resilience to low LNG delivery inPortugal needs additionally the develop- ment of the 3rd IPPortugal- Spain. \\ Regarding France, Figure 6.8 shows the ability to deal with less than 20% of LNGTerminal Send-Out capacity under a 14-day uniform risk situation (and alsoDesigncase situationaspresented in theTYNDP) due to theother sources: interconnectionpoints andUGS. Additionally, the figure shows the Frenchnet- work capability to cover the demand under maritime conditions impacting all facilities of a given Zone (e.g. Fos Cavaou and Fos Tonkin located in GRTgaz South Zone) using others entries. \\ Another important conclusion shown in the Figure 6.8 is that Send-Out from LNGTerminals inFrance aswell as the others ones in theNorth-SouthCorridor inWestern Europe could be reduced down to the minimum level without any congestion in theEuropeannetwork. TheEuropeannetwork in theNorth-South Corridor inWesternEurope, except the IberianPeninsula, have thecapability to react to an LNGdisruption replacing lack of LNGby additional entries, byUGS, import pipelines and incremental flows through interconnection cross border. Resilience to low LNG delivery: LNGSupply perspective For the results of the Figure 6.8, the LNG supply is considered as one source. However, the LNG supply is by nature diversified. In order to further analyse the potential risk for the Iberian Peninsula due to a lack of resilience to lowLNGdeliverability, wehaveanalysedbothcountriesPortugal and Spain separately focusing on the LNG basket.

7%

France

51%

Portugal

18%

Spain

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

AbuDhabi Algeria Egypt Equatorial Guinea

Libya Nigeria Norway Oman

PapuaNewGuinea Peru Qatar Trinidad& Tobago

USA Yemen

Pipe

Figure 6.9: Share of imports by pipe and by LNG (Average period 2009–2011 by country origin)

ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022 |

61

Made with