ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

Taking intoaccount thehistorical data for the2009–2011, Portugal receivesaround 60% of gas imports by LNG of which 84% comes fromNigeria. This means that 51% of Portugal imports come fromNigeria. Spain receives around72% of gas imports by LNG. Despite Spanish LNGbasket is highly diversified, 25% of the total LNG also comes fromNigeria, meaning around 18% of the gas Spanish imports. LNG fromNigeria represents also around7% of the total French imports. Considering the current supply basket, a lack of LNG fromNigeriadue toUpstream events like natural disasters, technical accidents, fires, terrorist attacks, or other forcemajeure causes could be a potential risk for the Iberian Peninsula, especially for Portugal. Results of the simulations comparing the LNG send out required in the situations “14daysperiodundernormal operational conditions” (Reference)with the“14days period under low LNG delivery ” we can conclude: \\ The Spanish gas system vulnerability to a lack of LNG from Nigeria is mitigated with the development of the Western Axis; the entry capacity from France to Spain, as well as the LNG stored in tanks would allow replacing the Nigerian LNG supply lacked without have impact in the coverage of the demand.Therefore, we can conclude that the lack of resilience to low LNG deliverability is not de facto a risk of security of supply for Spaindue to thehigh level of LNG diversification by country of origin, as well as the LNG Tanks capacity providing autonomy to the Spanish LNGTerminals. \\ Due to the LNG from Nigeria represents more than a half of the total annual supply inPortugal, the vulnerability risk in the Portuguese gas system is highly dependent on the total amount of LNG lack from this country origin. Based on the analysis developed, a partial lack of LNG fromNigeria representing more than 35% of the total supply could affect the Portuguese High daily demand coverage.Therefore, we can conclude that the lack of resilience to low LNGde- liverability inPortugal couldbe clearly improvedpromoting the LNGdiversifica- tion as well as the LNG Tanks capacity providing autonomy to the Sines LNG Terminal (if needed). Specific Analysis on the vulnerability of the Portuguese gas system (additional to the TYNDP assessments) The Portugal gas system vulnerability has been also highlighted by the Portuguese Competent Authority in theRiskAssessment (RA) and in thePreventiveActionPlan (PAP), whereadeeply analysiswasdoneunder the requirements of theRegulation No. 994/2010. As it is concluded by the Portuguese Competent Authority, www.dgeg.pt, under the analysis done in theRiskAssessment (RA) and in thePreventiveActionPlan (PAP) already published and adopted, without the increase of the withdrawal capacity of the Carriço UGS and without the 3rd Interconnection Portugal-Spain, the actual available capacity in the Portuguese network is not enough to guarantee the fulfil- ment of thenational N-1 criterionunder thedisruption of theSines LNGTerminal in a day of exceptionally high gas demand (1 in 20 years). Thismeans that the tech- nical capacity of the gas infrastructure is unable to satisfy the total gas demand in Portugal, under such an event.

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ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022