ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

%

120 GWh/d

Larrau IP France to Spain

90 100

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

60

0

+12 TWh

-60

0

-120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July Aug Sep Oct

Nov Dec

2009

2010

2011

2012

Utilization< 30%

Utilization 30%– 60%

Larrau 2012

Larrau 2011

Utilization 60%– 90%

Utilization> 90%

Nom. Import

Nom. Export

Utilization rate

Figure 6.22: Evolution of utilization of Spanish entry points (Source: Internal Development)

However, we have not observed network physical congestions in the Iberian Pen­ insulanetwork, theconsequenceof thismaximumgasflow fromNorth toSouth, sat- urating theNorth-South link, hasderived instrongdivergences inprices in theSouth Region: prices in the SpanishAOChave been around5€/MWhhigher than inPEG Sud, reaching up to 9€/MWh comparingwithPEGNord (see Figure 6.15). InNorth America, gas prices remainmuch lower than European prices due to the extensive development of unconventional gas production, shale gas in particular. Additionally, the first final investment decision (FID) of LNG exports from North Americahas been taken in2012. 1) This fact could triggermany changes in the LNG business in the next years. It should be noted that the current situation could be reversed and, as it has hap- pened in the past, if the LNG Atlantic basin has a gas excess, prices could be lower in the IberianPeninsula than in the rest of Europe. Then, given LNG Terminals capacity in the South Region, especially in the Iberian Peninsula, the flows could be inversed, in order to spread the benefit of low LNG prices to the rest of Europe. To be effective, such flows need larger bidirectional in- terconnection capacity from Portugal and Spain to Germany through France, in particular at, Spain-France and France-Germany boarders and also internally in France betweenPEGNord andPEGSud. The following figure also illustrate that the situation in the next period could be in- versed. “By 2020, internationally-trade LNG couldmakeup asmuch as 20percent of global gas supplywith significant changes in the relative rolesof exportersand im- porters. The growth in the number of buyers and sellers will create deeper LNG networksandopenupnewflexibility in themarket andnewcompetitivedynamics”. 2) Whatever gas flows will be in the future, the experience of the last years and the outlook of the future, highlights the need for a transmission network design solid enough to reach amore integratedmarket.

1) In the United States, FIDwas taken in August on the first phase of the Sabine Pass liquefaction project developed by Cheniere. GII GNL, "The LNG Industry in 2012" 2) The Age of Gas & The Power of Networks (General Electric Company)

ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022 |

71