ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

Maximum flows fromSouth toNorth In the previous analysis we have focused on theminimum level of LNG required in the Region. Deeply analysis has also been developed in order to capture possible limitations for the maximum Send Out from LNG Terminals if it is required by the market. Historically, LNGTerminals in the IberianPeninsulaand in theSouthof Francehave had different Send Out yearly and daily profiles. In the Iberian Peninsula, due to a lackofUGSandcross-border interconnectionas tools tocoverdemandfluctuations, the Send Out from the LNG Terminals follows the demand modulation profile. In France, LNG Terminals usually have a flatter profile during the year and the day. In terms of utilization factor , the average historical utilization factor in the Iberian Peninsula was around 0,50 while in France it was near 0,70. In the recent period, this factor has diminished a lot where possible, due to the LNG price spread with Asia and for the reduction of the gas consumption in the area of influence. Therefore, we can conclude the utilization of the LNG Terminals depends on inter- connection capacities as well as the level of demand and the alternative options for the commodity in a global market. For these reasons, our objective is to further investigatehow thedevelopment of the corridor “Bidirectional flows between Portugal, Spain, France andGermany” could integrate the existing and coming LNG Terminals projects in the area; and how it could increase their utilization in case of low LNG price, whether from important needs of gas in central Europe or due to any other interest of the shippers operating in themarket. In order to further analyse this aspect, themaximum gas flow from the South of the Region to the GRTgaz North zone has been calculated. Intermediate potential supply from Algerian gas by pipeline has been considered prior to determine the LNGSendOut.Due to the significant n-FIDLNGTerminalsprojects increasingSend Out capacity in the South of France, this analysis has been done for both clusters, FID LNG Terminals andn-FID LNG Terminals. Figure 6.25 and Figure 6.26 show the evolution of the resulting potential utilization factor for the LNG Terminals in the southern area of the South of France according to the development of themain transmission projects in the EasternAxis as well as the development of the n-FID LNGTerminals projects. Assumingmaximum gas flow from South to North, these results show the simulta- neous utilization factor that couldbe reached for the LNGTerminals in the South of France considering also themaximumutilization factor reached for the Iberian LNG Terminals.

Evolution of LNG terminals utilization factor with the current IPs

Evolution of LNG Evolution of LNG terminals utilization factor developingMidcat &merge GRTgaz North South

100 90 80 %

100 90 80 %

60 50 40 30 20 10 70

60 50 40 30 20 10 70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0

LNG Terminal “Cluster”:

Existing+ FID

Existing+ FID+ nFID

LNG Terminal “Cluster”:

Existing+ FID

Existing+ FID+ nFID

Figure 6.25: Utilization factor of the LNG Terminals in the South of France –maximum gas flow South to North

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ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022