ENTSOG GRIP South - Main Report

6.4.2 MaximisationofRussiangas

The Supply Potential of Russian gas is based on the export values given in the Energy Strategy of Russia for the periodup to 2030 (published in2010).Maximum scenario assumes low exports to Turkey and CIS countries and to Asia, leading to the higher exports for EU-27, and represents an increment higher than +30% comparedwith the current supply. Using the NeMo tool developed by ENTSOG, for the year 2022, we have run simulations of the European network considering the cluster of the existing infra- structures+the FIDprojects. Additionally to this cluster, we have also simulated the network including the new corridor “Bidirectional flows between Portugal, Spain, France andGermany”. Goingdeeper in the effect of thedevelopment of thesenew transmissionprojects, it should be highlighted that: \\ Figure6.31 illustrates the spreadof Russiangas throughEurope. Aftermerging theGRTgazNorth andSouth zones, theMidCat project and the 3rd IPPortgal- Spain, the Russian gas which currently reaches France, could also flow to the IberianPeninsula reachingPortugal. Based on the assumptions considered for the assessment, the share of Russian gas that could flow to the IberianPenin- sula is reduced. However, the effect creating liquidity in the market could be very important. It openspossibilities of arbitragebetween thedifferent European gas sources, making the transmission system a powerful contributor to the price convergence in the area.

Potential supply share

Potential supply share

>20%

5–20%

0–5%

>20%

5–20%

0–5%

Figure 6.31: The spread of Russian gas through Europe under two infrastructure clusters in 2022 Left: Existing+ FID Right: Existing+ FID+Midcat project +Merger North South zone+ 3rd IP Portugal Spain

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ENTSOG–GRIPSouth 2013–2022