Q1-2017 B Erhardt Tampa Bay Area Land Quarterly Report

Erhardt’s Tampa Bay Land Market Overview | Quarterly Report Q1 - 2017

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THE BIG PICTURE Tampa Bay Builders Association, February 15, 2017 Economic Forecast. Robert Deetz NAHB Chief Economist • GDP 2017: Predicting 2.4% growth and 2.5% growth in 2018. • Labor force decline is a problem. • Mortgage rates: 4.5% end of 2017 and 5.3% end of 2018. • Cost of building materials is an issue. • Regulatory costs going up 29% over next 5 years • Predicting Florida up 9% in 2017. • 1.8 jobs equals 1 home demand • Tampa Bay home starts prediction for 2017 – 10,000 single family and 6000 multi family

RCLCO Top Selling Master Plan Communities of 2016 Of the top 20 master plan communities, 20% were in Texas, 20% were in California, 20% were in Florida

20 Top-Selling MPCs in 2016

2016 SALES

2015 SALES

% CHANGE

RANK

MPC

MSA

LOCATION STATE

1

Irvine Ranch The Villages

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana

Orange County

CA 1,989

1,674 2,294

19%

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Ocala

The Villages Ponte Vedra Sarasota Las Vegas Charleston Las Vegas McKinney

FL FL FL

1,966

-14% -12% 45% 28% 45% 12% 14% -9% 9%

Nocatee

Jacksonville

973 775 769 569 564 528 502 495 490 471 458 453 452 443 441 426 515

1,105 535 602 520 389 472 450 554 500 282 665 302 466 415 355 609 443 343

Lakewood Ranch

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise Charleston-North Charleston Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana

Summerlin

NV SC NV TX TX AZ

Cane Bay Plantation

Inspirada Westridge

Paloma Creek

Dallas Mesa

10

Eastmark Lake Nona

11

Orlando

FL

-1%

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Great Park Neighborhoods

Irvine

CA CO

74%

Stapleton

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood

Denver

-29%

Rancho Mission Viejo

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana

San Juan Capistrano CA

52% -3%

Vistancia Daybreak

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale

Peoria

AZ UT CA TX TX AZ

Salt Lake City

South Jordan Lake Forest

9%

Baker Ranch Riverstone

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

25%

Fort Bend County Fort Bend County

-28% -4% 20%

Aliana

3

20

Verrado

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale

Buckeye

413