Bombardier

current market drivers

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Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Projected GDP Growth can be used to forecast the likely trajectory of the business jet penetration for each region. Realization of fleet growth implicitly assumes expected adoption and acceptance of business jets and the progressive removal of barriers to growth, notably lack of adequate infrastructure and regulatory limitations. As the economy develops, the expected growth of the business jet fleet in each region can be reasonably predicted over the longer term. Once fleets are netted of aircraft retirements, business jet deliveries to each region can be derived. Goldman Sachs Asset Management has recently introduced the term "Growth Market" to define any country outside the developed world that is responsible for at least 1% of global GDP. These economies are most likely to "experience rising productivity coupled with favorable demographics and, therefore, a faster growth rate than the world average going forward". These include the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and also Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia. We expect a significant share of business jet deliveries to originate from these Growth Markets.