Bombardier

the forecast

28

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Europe

Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Europe Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030

10,000

2030

1,000

2010

WESTERN EUROPE

2010

100

A two-speed Europe is becoming more and more an economic reality. As the “core” of the Euro area – Germany, France and UK – is turning the corner, the “peripherals” – Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal – are still suffering from the sovereign-debt crisis. The German economy, the most prominent in Europe, is recovering quite well from the 2008-2009 downturn. The ramifications of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis have so far had little impact on this country. The massive and sustained growth acceleration since Q2-2010 has made Germany the star performer in Western Europe. Germany’s economy is expected to remain exceptionally robust in 2011 compared to the economies of France and the UK.

EASTERN EUROPE

10

Actual Western Europe Actual Eastern Europe

Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)

Forecast

1960

1

1,000

10,000

100,000

GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)

Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.

Britain’s economy saw most of its sectors off to a strong start in Q1-2011, in particular with regards to output in the services and manufacturing sectors. Britain's short to midterm growth is expected to remain mild, as the country faced important governmental budget tightening.

According to the economic research firm Xerfi, the outlook for France is quite contrasted: bearing a record trade deficit in Q1-2011, France saw its industrial output falling back to levels experienced 10 years ago. Its industry network is slowly deteriorating, while con- sumption is hampered by a rising inflation.