Bombardier

the forecast

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Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Africa

Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Africa Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030

100

2030

2010

10

Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)

Actual Forecast

Africa – given the range of its geographic and economic conditions – is recovering at a different pace. While the global economy shrank in 2008-2009, the Sub-saharan Africa’s economy managed to grow another 2% in 2009 and its growth rate in 2010 was close to 5%. Recovery in Nigeria, Africa's largest oil exporting economy, continues to be on track, and will show further positive signs as both oil production and prices keep on improving. The continued robust growth in the non-oil sector will be a major contributing factor. Chinese investment and trade has increased dramatically in recent years in Angola and Nigeria.

1960

1

100

1,000

10,000

GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)

Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.

activity in North Africa and will continue to weigh on the economies in these countries over the next several months. Tourism and investment have been hit hard and are expected to continue to slump in the near term given the new political uncertainties facing the region, while normal business activities have also been impaired by the crisis.

South Africa went into recession following a sharp slowdown in the mining and manufac- turing sectors. The construction industry, on the other hand, has benefited from a huge program of government investment to pre- pare for the 2010 World Cup.

The ongoing turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya has substantially disrupted economic