3rd ICAI 2024

International Conference on Automotive Industry 2024

Mladá Boleslav, Czech Republic

Moving on to assessing the effectiveness of the model, apart from the mentioned MAPE and MAE values, it is worth noting the high level of the coefficient of determination R 2 , the value of which is 0.963 for the training set and 0.927 for the test set, which proves a high level of influence on the variability of the dependent variable on the variability of the independent variables. The value of data fit shown at Figure 7 allows the model to be accepted as effective and used in operations planning processes in subsequent periods.

Figure 7: Residuals for ETR model

Source: Own elaboration Moving on to the visualization of observed values and prediction values, the Figure 8 and Figure 9 shows the results generated by the average value prediction model (ETR model) and standard deviation values (CBR model) for the work shift. The green line in the above-mentioned figures shows the average power used during the month, the red line shows the maximum power for the same period. The graph also includes historically observed prediction values and confidence intervals constructed on the basis of three times the standard deviation resulting from the CBR model’s prediction for the predicted period. From the analysis of the data presented in the chart, it can be seen that the proposed solution copes well with large variance between subsequent periods, which can be seen in periods 28 to 39 and period 47 to 58, where there was a significant reduction in power demand due to a reduction in production in these periods.

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