Annual Economic and Financial Review -December 2018

2018 Annual Economic and Financial Review

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

particularly stay-over visitors from all the major source markets. Increases in such receipts were realized in six of the ECCU countries and were noteworthy in Montserrat (32.9 per cent), St Kitts and Nevis (15.2 per cent), Saint Lucia (12.7 per cent) and Grenada (10.1 per cent). Gross external disbursements to the central governments totalled $640.2m, an increase of 14.6 per cent, while external debt repayment amounted to $679.3m, approximately 27.8 per cent above the amount recorded at the end of last year. These developments contributed to a net outflow of $39.1m by the central governments, compared with a net inflow position of $27.5m in the prior year. Total official grants to the governments were down by 4.4 per cent, in contrast to an expansion of 11.4 per cent in 2017. This outturn reflected lower grant receipts by four territories, including Saint Lucia ($27.9m) and Dominica ($13.3m). Commercial banks’ external transactions led to a net outflow of $553.9m in short term capital, relative to one of $704.9m during the previous year.

This outturn was largely driven by growth in import payments, which more than offset an improvement in export receipts. The value of imports expanded by 17.1 per cent ($1233.9m) to $8,452.4m, compared with growth of 3.0 per cent in the prior year. Higher import payments were recorded in all the eight member countries ranging from 4.1 per cent in Saint Lucia to 65.4 per cent in Anguilla. Export revenue grew by 3.7 per cent to $844.3m, largely reflecting an increase of 5.1 per cent ($28.2m) in domestic exports, supported by growth of 1.2 per cent in re- exports. Five territories registered augmented exports earnings, mostly in Anguilla and St Kitts and Nevis, where receipts from exports grew by 15.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent, respectively.

Outlook

Notwithstanding a projected moderation in global expansion as cited by the IMF’s April 2019 World Economic Outlook report,

Gross travel receipts were estimated to have expanded by 5.8 per cent to $5,878.5m, associated with growth in total visitor arrival,

______________________________________________________________________________ 15 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank