Annual Economic and Financial Review -December 2018

2018 Annual Economic and Financial Review

DOMINICA

visitors is estimated to have declined by 13.3 per cent to 204,457, driven by a sharp reduction in both the number of stayover visitors and the number of cruise ship passengers, the two largest subcategories of visitors. The number of cruise ship passengers fell by 14.4 per cent to 134,466 and accordingly, there were 14 fewer cruise calls. A decrease of 10.5 per cent was also observed in the number of stayover visitors, reflecting a fall in arrivals from France (45.4 per cent), the United Kingdom (29.6 per cent) and the USA (23.4 per cent). Moderating the decline in stayover arrivals were increases in visitors from the Caribbean (7.3 per cent), Dominica’s largest source market, and Canada (4.3 per cent). The rise in stayover visitors from the Caribbean was likely to be associated with the reintroduction of the annual World Creole Music Festival in October 2018, following a hiatus in 2017 due to the hurricane. Further deepening the contraction in activity in the sector, the number of excursionists and yacht passengers declined by 27.8 and 15.3 per cent respectively. Consistent with the decline in stayover arrivals, specifically those in paid accommodation, tourism expenditure declined by 40.0 per cent to $186.7m in 2018.

Preliminary estimates indicate that output in the manufacturing sector declined by 25.0 per cent in 2018, following four years of decreases in activity. The sector’s contribution to total output therefore moved downwards to 1.8 per cent from 2.2 per cent in the previous year. This outturn was partially associated with a fall in the output of beverages by 57.2 per cent, partly reflecting the closure of the Dominica Brewery and Beverages Ltd. Tempering the contraction in the sector, the production of paints increased by 84.8 per cent and notably, the manufacturing of soaps resumed in 2018. Due to the permanent departure of Ross University School of Medicine, it is estimated that activity in the education sector declined by 55.5 per cent, following a 6.9 per cent contraction in the previous year. Accordingly, the sector’s contribution to total output decreased to 5.7 per cent in 2018 from 12.1 per cent in 2017. Also affected by the departure of Ross University, value added in the real estate, renting and business activities sector was compressed by 9.8 per cent. This outturn was also somewhat attributable to damages sustained by owner occupied and rental dwellings from the passage of hurricane Maria. These events have also partly contributed to a 25.9 per cent decrease in output in the electricity and water sector.

______________________________________________________________________________ 48 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank

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