U Magazine , Fall 1985

Can Gorbachev Make a Difference? By Dr. Patrick Drinan

Winston Churchill once described the Soviet Union as a ··riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." However, that was 50 years ago in the midst of a Stalin frenzy of activity that perplexed not only the West, but also a good number of Soviet citizens. The Soviet Union has gone through several leadership changes since then, and two generations of scholars and intelligence analysts have had the oppor– tunity to study the Soviet system. The USSR has settled into some fairly con– sistent patterns, and we in the West have been able to refine our conceptual tools in an attempt to explain and predict Soviet political behavior. There are still differences of opinion, of course. among serious Soviet watch– ers, but there are many common under– standings of the dynamics of the Soviet political system. My effort in this essay is to provide an interpretation of the com– ing Gorbachev era.

There are four questions to consider: 1) How does Gorbachev compare to his predecessors? 2) What kind of world does he face? 3) What is he likely to do? and 4) Can he make a difference? The Soviet Union is almost 70 years old, but two men have led the country for over half its history: Stalin and Brezhnev. These are the only two who have established political eras. Stalin achieved dominance in Soviet politics by 1928 and maintained that dominance until his death in 1953. His years were those of immense transfor– mation of Soviet society that led to the decimation of the talented peasantry and to the destruction of the handicraft industries and artisan groups. An immense concentration of h eavy industry was developed, and Stalin isolated the USSR from the world. His approach brought the Soviet Union close to disaster on several occasions, but World War II (the great Patriotic War, as

I

7