Talking Risk

He just saying we have to figure out the chances of the events occurring … like, if you think the opposition will win.

We say whether it is highly likely, likely, unlikely or very unlikely to happen.

(Smh) So now we know the extent of the impact, we have to determine the likelihood of the risk materializing.

Well, why he couldn’t just say that? He talking ‘bout materializing like I’m some kind a seamstress.

So you mean, how likely it is for the event to actually happen?

You

and

them big terms again! …

Well if his brother applies for a visa now, he could get it in time for November. The likelihood of him going to the IMF would change from very unlikely to likely.

Those answers bring me to a very important point about assessing likelihood. You have to take into consideration things that are being done to make the outcome less likely (if it is negative) or more likely (if it is positive).

My brother going on the IMF mission is very unlikely because he seem to have forgotten one little, but very important detail …. he doesn’t have a visa and the last time I checked the IMF is in the US of A. The music fest thing is unlikely , because I love Buju but I also love my job … so I will still go, but like I said, I working on a plan to kill two birds with one stone.

That’s easy …

The election one, I leaving that alone … let somebody else answer that.

And the opposition winning the election … for

Well I would say it’s likely, i t can go either way, these things are unpredictable. Both parties campaigning hard. There isn’t much any of us can do.

And my friend here says he working on a ‘plan’ so he could go music festival and still finish his assignment, so it is unlikely that he would miss his deadline.

Yes … let’s hope it’s a good plan or else that unlikely will become very likely and that’s a bigger risk for him!

Let me listen to this one good …