VCC Magazine Fall 2018

Fighting Gerrymandering with a Constitutional Amendment? By Stephen J. Farnsworth

Politicians who must cater to the most extreme 10 percent of the district’s voters have zero incentive to compromise and instead legislate from the far left or the far right.When legislative compromise is nearly impossible, difficult problems fester. For decades, Democrats drew the lines and Republicans suffered. The last set of state legislative lines, drawn in 2011 and subject to court challenges ever since, were far more Republican-friendly than were those from previous decades. All three state offices elected statewide are held by Democrats, as are both Virginia seats in the US Senate. Democrats also won the state’s electoral votes in the last three presidential elections. Thanks to favorable line-drawing, this Democratic advantage has not been reflected in the US House, where Republicans hold seven of the state’s eleven congressional seats. Public hesitation to constitutional change does not suggest public satisfaction with the status quo. When asked in September 2018 whether the current system of having lawmakers draw lines was more or less likely to give the individual a lawmaker who reflected his or her views, 19 percent of respondents said more likely and 29 percent said less likely, with the remainder believing that it makes no difference or were unsure. The narrow divisions in the legislature, a 51-49 Republican advantage in the House of Delegates and a 21-19 GOP advantage in the Senate, create an environment where either party could be in the majority three years from now. Because elected officials from the party in power draw lines to suit themselves, both parties can realistically imagine themselves being able to take care of their own members—and punish opponents—in the near future. That uncertainty complicates efforts by activists to secure passage of an independent commission plan. Lawmakers whose party is likely to endure an extended time in the minority, with little influence over legislation or line-drawing, would find it easier to support redistricting reform than a party that can expect a decade or longer in the majority. Since neither party can count on the other party holding all the political cards after the November 2019 elections, building a majority for redistricting reform may be a great challenge during next winter’s legislative session. Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, and the author or co-author of six books of the presidency, public opinion and political communication. His views are his own.

Public opinion in Virginia strongly supports creating independent commissions to draw legislative district lines, but a new statewide survey by the University of Mary Washington shows considerable public resistance to changing the Virginia Constitution to make that happen. By a margin of 45 percent to 40 percent, Virginians surveyed in September said they opposed an amendment to the Constitution to take the line-drawing power away from the state legislature. The rest were uncertain.

These results come despite surveys routinely showing overwhelming support for ending the process of letting lawmakers draw their own district lines and replacing them with an independent commission. In a November 2015 UMW statewide survey, for example, only 14 percent said the legislature should retain line- drawing authority, while 72 percent favored transferring that authority to an independent commission. Since the Virginia Constitution authorizes the legislature to draw legislative district boundaries, a constitutional amendment would be the most straightforward way to transfer the process away from lawmakers. To take effect, constitutional amendments must be approved in both chambers of the legislature in two separate sessions (with an election intervening) and then gain majority support from the state’s voters. The new survey illustrates challenges advocates of a less-partisan redistricting process have in the upcoming session of the legislature. Legislators draw new lines after every U.S. Census to take account of population shifts, and the next decennial line-drawing effort will take place in 2021, leaving little time for reform advocates to pass a constitutional amendment that would take effect for the next line- drawing cycle. The problems of the status quo are well-known. High- tech gerrymandering has a number of consequences that undermine effective representative government. Noncompetitive elections reduce turnout and discourage participation by quality candidates from the disadvantaged party. To make matters worse, gerrymandered districts place the real power for the selection of elected officials in the hands of the tiny minority of voters, usually less than 10 percent, who participate in the primaries where the party nomination is determined.

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