SPADA

Pre event: prevalence of smallpox is zero Peri event: prevalence of smallpox is low • Approaches to improving predictive value positive : implications for result use (rule in, and institution of vaccination campaign vs. rule out) – Use more than 1 test (different targets) – Use tests without common sources of false positives

Post event

• Need to assess what needs for testing will be: – One scenario: greatest needs in beginning, and near end of smallpox re-eradication • May need to test more “low suspicion samples” – Sensitivity vs. specificity