ENTSOG Gas Regional Investment Plan South 2017 - Main Report

South Region LNG comes primarily from Algeria (43%, mainly to France), Nigeria (31%, mainly to Portugal) and Qatar (18%), while five additional LNG suppliers bring some diversity to the supply chain (see Figure 4.7). Algeria also represents the largest LNG supplier for France (76%), and Nigeria the largest LNG supplier for Portugal (77%), while Spanish LNG portfolio is more balanced (the largests suppli- ers are Algeria and Nigeria with a share of around 30% each) as seen in Figure 4.7. This distribution is set to change in the coming years with the launch of USA gas ex- ports towards Europe in March 2016 (the two first American shipments to Europe were sent to Portugal and Spain). Furthermore, increased liquefaction capacity in Australia and slower demand for gas in Asia will most likely prompt Atlantic Basin and Middle Eastern producers to redirect LNG cargos to Europe and Middle East, further driving down prices.

South Region

–12

Algeria Nigeria Norway Qatar Others Re-Export loaded

12

43

%

18

6

31

France

Portugal

Spain

–8

15

–13

–24

12

31

8

4

8

37

%

%

%

26

16

77

76

16

32

6

6

Figure 4.7: LNG source breakdown in the South Region in 2015 (Source: GIIGNL 2016)

bcm/yr (s)

600 550 500 450 350 300 250 200 150 400 50 0 100

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Asia Paci c

Europe

Middle East

North Africa

North America

South America

West Africa

Figure 4.8: LNG liquefaction worldwide capacities constructed or under construction, bcm (Source: WoodMackenzie)

Gas Regional Investment Plan of the South Region 2017 | 47