ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

3.3.2

FORECAST PEAK DAILY DEMAND

Daily peak demand is of vital importance, as it is the main criterion for network de- sign. The chart below shows the historical Regional aggregated peak demand over the last 4 years. This demand is the sum of national peak demand days during the last four years that may have occured on different days in each country. The tables below show the comparison between the Southern Corridor GRIP 2012 – 2021, TYNDP 2013–2022 and Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 data. It results that the forecasted peak demand steadily decreases in the three consecutive investment plans.

10,000 GWh/y

Actual

Forecast

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 5,000

0

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2023

2019 2021

Southern Corridor GRIP 2012 Southern Corridor GRIP 2014

ENTSOG TYNDP 2013

Figure 3.10: Southern Corridor peak demand comparison between the SC GRIP 2012 – 2021, TYNDP 2013 – 2022 and SC GRIP 2014 – 2023

Peak demand forecasts show a decrease consistent with annual demand revisions, but their contractions are relatively less important as the percentage decreases of peak demand are about half of the corresponding reductions of the total demand. This outcome confirms also for the future the findings derived studying the histori- cal peak demand on the unaltered importance of guaranteeing gas system security of supply through an adequate network design.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Difference (GWh)

-548 -612 -800 -717 -760 -723 -741 -725 -723 -6.2 -6.8 -8.6 -7.6 -8.0 -7.5 -7.7 -7.5 -7.4

Difference (%)

Table 3.4: Decrease of peak daily demand forecasts for Southern Corridor GRIPs between 2012 – 2021 and 2014 – 2023

The decrease between peak daily demand forecasts of ENTSOG TYNDP 2013–2022 and Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 is shown in the following table:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Difference (TWh)

-117 -129 -151 -177 -179 -165 -154 -148 -136 -134 -8.1 -8.8 -10.1 -11.5 -11.4 -10.4 -9.6 -9.1 -8.3 -8.2

Difference (%)

Table 3.5: Decrease between peak daily demand forecasts of ENTSOG TYNDP 2013 – 2022 and Southern Corridor GRIP 2014 – 2023

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023