ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

4.1. National Production

Gas from national production still plays an important role in some countries of the SC Region, especially in Romania where coverage of demand by national produc- tion is expected to be 71% in 2014 and 50% in 2023, Croatia (58% in 2014 and 19% in 2023), Bulgaria (24% in 2014 and 34% in 2023), Austria (17% in 2014 and 10% in 2023), Italy (10% in 2014 and 8% in 2023) and Hungary (15% in 2014 and 4% in 2023). By 2023, Romania will still be the major producer in the Region, among the countries already having a national production, with 39% of the Region’s production (with the exception of that of Cyprus discussed below), closely followed by Italy with 37%. In 2012 the share of gas for national production has covered 19% of the overall Southern Corridor demand as shown in Figure 4.1. Figure 4.2 shows the participation of each country in the national production of the Region in 2012.

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 1,800 TWh/y

6

8

1 0

Romania Italy Austria Hungary Croatia Bulgaria Slovakia

37

16

%

400 200 600

32

0

2002 2003

2005 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Indigenous production

Imports

Figure 4.1: Part of gas imports in total consumption

Figure 4.2: Share of national production by country in 2012

By 2023 this share is expected to decrease to approximately 12%. However this trend will be reversed if and when the recently discovered off-shore gas fields in Cyprus will enter production phase. Unlike the national production of the other countries, the production of Cyprus will greatly exceed its consumption even taking into account the commissioning of gas fired power plants, presently planned to enter in operation by 2016 , and any other use that will be developed, given that no gas is presently used on the island. Figure 4.3 shows the impact on the gas production from Cyprus on the SC Region national production, from 2019 onwards. This impact will make the SC Region national production jump from a 18% share of the EU national production, to almost 29%.

300,000 GWh/y

400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 150,000 200,000 450,000 GWh/y 50,000 100,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

0

2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2018

2021

2022 2023

2019

2020

2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2018

2021

2022 2023

2019

2020

Slovakia Croatia

Romania Bulgaria

Italy

Hungary

Slovakia Croatia

Romania Bulgaria

Italy

Hungary

Austria

Austria

Cyprus

Figure 4.3: National production forecast with and without the production of Cyprus

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023