ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

It has however to be noted that the estimation of the effective, and not only arithme- tic, share of national production on the Region’s demand depends on the final des- tination of the Cypriot gas. In fact, this gas will need to be exported but it is not yet known to which destination. Moreover, the quantities discovered so far do not seem sufficient to make feasible any export scheme other than a pipeline to Turkey, a low probability option unless a spectacular progress is made in the relations between the two countries. Therefore Cyprus should team with other countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, like Israel and possibly Lebanon, so that a critical mass is reached that will make a gas export project economically sustainable. The SC Region countries are one among other destinations. Many options are being discussed. The number of potential partners and the tensions inherent to this Region make, at this stage, any prediction on the successful option highly uncertain. In the present GRIP the non-FID project of a pipeline linking the Eastern Mediterranean gas fields to Greece, proposed by 3 rd parties (TRA-N-054 & 189), has been included.

4.2 Imports

The easternmost countries of the Region are greatly dependent on imports from Russia, as shown by the modelling results (see paragraph 7.3.3). LNG is an impor- tant source for Italy and Greece. Figure 4.4, showing the relative importance of the infrastructure in place and the one planned, indicates that a further increase is pos- sible (several LNG projects in Italy – all of them however non-FID – and the ongoing project of the 2 nd extension of the Revythoussa terminal in Greece together with the construction of a 3 rd storage tank). The rate of use of LNG will also depend on its price evolution. High demand from the far-east and prospects for LNG exports by the USA, are factors working in opposite directions (see also paragraph 4.3 below).

%

100

80

60

40

20

0

Send out

Storage

FID

Actual

non-FID

Figure 4.4: Relative capacity of existing, FID and non-FID LNG terminals in the Region

Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 |

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