ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

7.1 Introduction

This chapter presents the capabilities and the potential need for improvements of the gas transmission in the Region, in three different points in time and under vari- ous conditions referring to: - The implementation of new projects - The level of demand - The existence of supply restriction factors This investigation is done with the use of the ENTSOG model. This is a linear programming model which mini- mises the cost for meeting the demand in all countries (or balancing zones), represented as a single node 1) . Each node is connected to neighbouring nodes with arcs having a limited capacity equal to the sum of the capacities of existing interconnectors. LNG and UGS capac- ities, import points (from non-EU sources) and new projects are represented by additional arcs. The ENTSOG model calculations are based on \\ Entry and Exit Capacities of IPs between two countries respectively balancing zones as calculated by the relevant TSOs \\ Working gas volume respectively injection / withdrawal capacities of UGS \\ Send-out Capacities of LNG Regasification facilities \\ National production capacities This model was used to: \\ Analyse the balance between demand and supply \\ Estimate the resilience of the transmission network \\ Estimate the dependence of various countries on individual sources, specifi- cally Russian gas and LNG. This is achieved through the examination of various scenarios modelled by modify- ing the capacity assigned to different arcs. A more detailed description of the ENTSOG Network Modelling tool can be found in the ENTSOG TYNDP 2013 – 2022  2) . It is important to keep in mind that this model only proposes one of many possible combinations that cover the demand of various markets (one per country) while respecting the constraints regarding: \\ the capacity of interconnections and entry points (from third countries) and \\ the availability of supply sources The model does not forecast the actual flows neither can the solution proposed be considered more probable than other solutions. The actual flows will depend from decisions made by the shippers who take into account gas prices, use of system tariffs and other commercial conditions of the transportation contracts. We have seen, in chapter 4, that prices are influenced by several parameters both technical

1) There are a few countries in the EU where the internal transmission system applies constraints in the gas transmission within the country. In such cases a country may be represented by more nodes. No such case exists in the Southern Cor- ridor Region. 2) ENTSOG TYNDP 2013 – 2022, Main Report pp. 26-30

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