ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

7.3.2 UKRAINE DISRUPTION

7.3.2.1 CEE Region Uniform Risk demand, other Average Winter Demand

This scenario has been analysed considering the special relevance for the Regional context of such an occurrence. The supply situation in the Region under Ukraine disruption and assuming Uniform Risk demand for the CEE Region is not sufficient. In the 2014 FID case, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania face shortages, as the demand of these countries exceeds the supply. In the 2018 FID case only Hungary and Romania face shortages, since Bulgaria benefits from the implementation of the South Stream. Serbia also benefits from this project. On the other hand the resilience is reduced in Croatia, due to the decrease of national production that cannot be compensated through the supply from Hungary. The situation is improved, for Croatia, with the implementation of the PCI projects as these involve the LNG terminal in Krk Island. In the 2018 non-FID case, the shortage of Hungary disappears, although the resilience remains very low. Romania still has a small shortage because there is no dedicated capacity from South Stream towards Romania. Considering the 2023 FID, non-FID and FID+PCI cases it is visible that the supply situation is sufficient in case of realization of the PCI projects. The TAP, IGB and IAP projects have no impact on Hungary, and Romania as they do not change the corresponding remaining flexibilities.

Image courtesy of Plinovodi

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023