ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

7.3.2.3 CEE Region 2 weeks Uniform Risk, other Average Winter Demand

This scenario describes the Average Daily Demand under Ukrainian disruption, on a sustained 2-week cold event in the CEE Region, while the other Regions of EU ex- perience an average winter demand. The demand in this situation is lower than in the one-day Design Case or Uniform Risk situations. On the other hand, because of a 2 weeks period of sustained high demand, there is less gas in stock hence the withdrawal capacities of the storages are also lower than in 1 day scenarios. This has a knock-on effect reaching even Greece, in the 2014 FID case. The operation of South Stream improves the situation in Bulgaria and Serbia in the 2018 FID case. In the 2018 FID+PCI case Croatia, Bulgaria and Greece benefit from the Krk Island LNG terminal, the FSRUs in Northern Greece and the Chiren storage expansion in Bulgaria. In 2023 the effect of the reduction of the UGS deliverability becomes visible in the Western Balkans and Hungary. This is gradually relieved in the Western Balkans with the operation of IAP, in the Eastern Balkans with the remaining PCI projects and in Hungary with the non-FID projects, among which South Stream.

Image courtesy of FGSZ

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023