ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

7.3.3 IDENTIFICATION OF ZONES WITH STRONG RELIANCE ON A SINGLE SUPPLY SOURCE

This part of the assessment aims at identifying the Zones strongly relying on a sin- gle supply source. This dependence is measured as the minimum share of a given supply source required to balance the annual demand and exit flows of a Zone. This assessment is based on full supply minimization modelling, seeking for cases where a Zone will require a supply share of more than 20% from the minimized source. The full minimization of any source is based on the assignment of an increased cost in the simulation model, while the costs of the other sources are not modified. This means that the source in question will be used only in case the countries cannot cover their demand from other sources. In the maps that follow the colour code below is used to denote the minimum share in total supply: LNG RU

< 20% 20 – 40% 40 – 60% > 60%

The symbol <20% 20-40% 40-60% >60%

indicates the existence of (one or more) LNG terminals.

Two sets of maps are presented: The first one shows the reliance from either LNG or Russian gas during one day under average conditions. As shown below, no country has a reliance from LNG higher than 20% while many countries, with the exception of those who have ac- cess to LNG (Italy and Greece), Austria, Slovakia and Croatia rely on Russian gas for more than 20% and up to 60% of their supply. The second one shows the reliance on LNG, in the more stressed case of two weeks peak demand. This case was selected in order to explore the limits of the low reliance from LNG as these were not revealed in the previous case.

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7.3.3.1 Full minimization of Russian gas or LNG (occurrence: average day)

The Russian gas is crucial for the supply of Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria.

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Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023

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