ENTSOG Southern Corridor (SC) Gas Regional Investment Plan (GRIP) 2014-2023 / Main Report

The present publication of the “Southern Corridor Gas Regional Investment Plan” is the second edition of a report aimed at gathering and processing information from TSOs of countries which surround or are more di- rectly influenced by the gas transportation route defined as “Southern Corridor”. Compared to the first edition, we tried to offer to the reader a more complete picture of the Region supplemented with various enhancements, mainly resulting in the production of two completely new sections: “Assessment and Market analysis” chap- ter, including the examination of congestion at Regional IPs, and “Network Assessments” chapter, where we show modelling results of a variety of scenarios. Results reflect all the specific attributes of the area which the readers of this docu- ment have to take into account, in particular: \\ This Region hosts new transmission projects with larger capacities than planned infrastructure in the other Regions. Therefore new potential volumes will have high influence on security of supply and diversification of routes and/or sourc- es in the States of the area and all over Europe. \\ Many of the members of the Southern Corridor Region are transit countries, while infrastructure in other Regions has more a balanced role, being mostly destined to handle internal consumption. \\ This Region gathers countries with great variety of their national production. From one side, we have systems where production is from 0% to 10% of their peak consumption and may only marginally contribute to cover gas demand even in normal circumstances, let alone during crisis situation. On the other side, there are countries where production is a significant element in the sup- ply mix, representing a substantial factor for the diversification of sources both for themselves and for their neighbours as well. Nevertheless the gas produc- tion volume in all producing countries of the Region follows a decreasing trend. \\ Such mixed picture can be seen also at the demand side, which is affected by different population sizes of member states, by their geographical spread, from central parts of Eastern Europe, with high consumption in winter periods, to Southern Europe countries, with relatively high consumption levels also during summer and finally, by different market maturity. Despite these differences all the countries, in the Region, and their TSOs, will be strongly affected by the construction of any of the big transmission projects and are prepared to adapt their investments to such possibilities. Furthermore the present GRIP is providing a complete overview of the gas demand trends in the past 4 years and those expected in the next 10 years, analysing the current situation characterised by a weak annual consumption (reflected also in a decrease of successive forecasts). This dynamic is mainly due to the economic cri- sis effects and to the substitution of gas in power generation by other sources, such as coal and Renewable Energy Sources. At the same time the Region faces a gen- eral decrease of average load factor while the peak requirements remain important. Added to a higher intermittency of demand (RES-drive) the need for flexible infra- structure is destined even to increase its importance.

Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023 |

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