Monroe Community College Program Based Economic Impact Analysis, January 2015

Monroe Community College Program Based Economic Impact Analysis

JANUARY 2015

Workforce forward.

Contents

1 PURPOSE OF THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & INNOVATIVE WORKFORCE SERVICES DIVISION

2 INTRODUCTION 2 Description of Program Metrics

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7 ECONOMIC IMPACT RESULTS 7 Office Technology 8 Computer Information Systems 9 Information Technology 10 Health Information Technology 11 Construction Technologies Program 12 Applied Integrated Technology/Mechatronics Program 13 Mechanical Engineering Technology Program 14 Precision Machining & Tooling Program 15 Optical Systems Technology Program 16 Heating, Ventilation, & Air Conditioning (HVAC) Program 17 Electrical Engineering Technology Program 18 Automotive Technology Program

19 APPENDIX A: ABOUT THE MODEL AND DATA

21 APPENDIX B: OCCUPATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS

28 APPENDIX C: GLOSSARY OF TERMS

Purpose of the Economic Development & Innovative Workforce Services Division

The mission of the Monroe Community College (MCC) division of Economic Development and Innovative Workforce Services (EDIWS) is to: ◆ ◆ actively create and promote a robust applied- STEM, career and technical education, and mid- dle-skills career pathway system; ◆ ◆ support investment in curricula and equipment for academic, career and technical education, and industry targeted programming; ◆ ◆ proactively address the shortage in educational pipeline (future workforce) and the skills gaps in the existing workforce; and to ◆ ◆ outreach to Rochester business and industry in an aggressive and pervasive way. In support of this mission, the division for Economic Development and Innovative Workforce Services has

embarked on an ambitious “mapping” project to mea- sure middle-skill gaps for more than 20 occupational clusters throughout the Finger Lakes Regional Econ- omy within the advanced manufacturing, information and computer technologies, skilled trades, hospitality and tourism and health care industry sectors. Using workforce data to drive program development, MCC has launched several initiatives within the past year, including a credit-bearing accelerated precision tool- ing certificate program and a selection of noncredit courses offered by the MCC Corporate College. The data from this economic impact study is intended to augment the Measuring Middle-Skills Occupational Gaps in the Finger Lakes Regional Economy project and better inform MCC’s economic and workforce development activities related to: regional grant partnerships; program development and evaluation; and labor market intelligence related to the Greater Rochester workforce. Interested in Additional Research? Visit www.workforceforward.com/reports to view the following reports. ♦ Measuring Middle-Skills Occupational Gaps within the Finger Lakes Regional Economy, January 2015 ♦ Rochester Area Skill Needs Assessment and Business Climate Survey, May 2014 ♦ Rochester Area Skill Needs Assessment and Business Climate Survey, September 2013

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Introduction This report describes the economic impact attrib- utable to different educational programs offered by Monroe Community College (MCC). “Economic impact” describes the full range of economic effects that can be directly attributed to each of the aca- demic programs in terms of the increased wages for completers, the increased productivity for employers, and the increased earnings for other workers who either get jobs or are enabled to be more productive due to the contributions of MCC’s completers to the local economy. The twelve academic programs analyzed in this report include Office Technology; Computer Infor- mation Systems; Information Technology; Health Information Technology/Medical Records; Construc- tion Technology; Applied Integrated Technology/ Mechatronics; Mechanical Engineering Technology; Precision Machining & Tooling; Optical Systems Technology; Heating, Ventilation, and Air Condi- tioning (HVAC); Electrical Engineering Technology; and Automotive Technology. The geographic area used to determine these eco- nomic impacts comprises the following nine counties in New York State: Monroe, Ontario, Yates, Genesee, Livingston, Wayne, Orleans, Wyoming and Seneca. DESCRIPTION OF PROGRAM METRICS Each program summary contains a consistent set of tables and charts that are described here. The appen- dix contains further data regarding methodology and occupations associated with each academic program. The first table in each program summary displays

FIGURE 1: Map of Service Area

the total economic impact attributable to completers of the academic program. This total impact includes the initial impact, or alumni’s increased earnings due to their education at MCC, and the multiplier effects. Multiplier effects refer to the additional income created in the economy as MCC alumni and their employers spend money within the region. They are categorized according to the following four effects: the initial effect, the direct effect, the indirect effect, and the induced effect. Initial effects refer to wages paid to MCC alumni by employers. Direct effects occur as employers purchase goods and services from other local companies. Indirect effects occur as this second- ary round of businesses purchase more goods and services from local companies. And finally, induced effects occur as these purchases create additional income for employees of all local businesses. The figures in the first table are all based on the economic impact for 2014. The impact will generally increase with time for two reasons. First, as more students enter the labor force, the program’s total economic impact will increase. Secondly, even if no additional completers entered the workforce, the eco-

MONROE COMMUN I T Y COL L EGE | ECONOM I C MODE L I NG S P EC I A L I S T S I NT L .  2

nomic impact would increase with time as the alumni gain greater work experience and earn higher wages. The second table in each program summary dis- plays economic impact per worker. To indicate the program’s total output we display the number of com- pleters in the workforce. Next we display the annual economic impact per completer, which is the total economic impact displayed in the first table divided by the net number of working students who have remained in the region. This net number is obtained by multiplying the total number of completers in the workforce by the percent of completers who remain in the region, and the percent of completers who are known to be employed. Each of these adjustment fac- tors come from MCC’s Institutional Research depart- ment and vary by program. The estimated lifetime earnings measurement represents the present value of earnings for an average completer over the course of his or her working life. 1 Present value indicates that future values have been discounted based on the riskiness of students’ investment in education and the time value of money. These earnings figures are simulated using EMSI’s program specific earnings forecast model, which accounts for educational level, years of experience, race/ethnicity, gender, occupa-

tion, and average regional earnings by occupation. The estimated lifetime earnings of graduates in each program at every age between 18 and 67 are dis- played in the first figure in each program summary. For comparison purposes, this graph also contains the estimated annual earnings for these individuals had they never attended MCC (termed the “con- trol” group). The expected earnings generated for the control group are a weighted average based on a mixture of low-skill occupations in which the stu- dent cohorts would be likely to work based on their educational characteristics. It includes occupations such as cashiers, janitors, food service workers, and general laborers. Further information on the earnings estimate model can be found in appendix A. Each program’s economic impact is directly related to the number of completers that are in the workforce, their educational level, and the years of experience accumulated since completing their pro- gram of study. In order to demonstrate these data visually, the second figure in each program summary shows the number of completers per year from MCC’s academic program over the previous ten years at the postsecondary vocational award and associates degree levels.

1 An average student is a composite of an average age, and average racial composition among all program completers.

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Executive Summary In this study EMSI analyzes the economic impact of twelve of Monroe Community College’s (MCC) aca- demic programs: Office Technology; Computer Infor- mation Systems; Information Technology; Health Information Technology/Medical Records; Construc- tion Technology; Applied Integrated Technology/ Mechatronics; Mechanical Engineering Technology; Precision Machining & Tooling; Optical Systems Technology; Heating, Ventilation, and Air Condition- ing (HVAC); Electrical Engineering Technology; and Automotive Technology. The programs were selected by MCC based on employers’ expressed demand for trained workers in these fields. Following are some of the key findings of this analysis: ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Office Technology program generated an estimated $1.8 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 254 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $7,100 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $427,100 in future earn- ings as a result of this education.

◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Computer Informa- tion Systems program generated an estimated $15 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 173 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $86,900 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $1,049,500 in future earnings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Information Tech- nology program generated an estimated $7.2 mil- lion in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 57 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Science degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $126,700 per per- son. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $979,400 in future earnings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Health Informa- tion Technology/Medical Records program gener- ated an estimated $7 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 145 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Applied Science degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic

MONROE COMMUN I T Y COL L EGE | ECONOM I C MODE L I NG S P EC I A L I S T S I NT L .  4

◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Precision Machining & Tooling program generated an estimated $20 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 267 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $75,500 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $694,300 in future earn- ings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Optical Systems Technology program generated an estimated $3.6 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 29 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $121,500 per per- son. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $702,300 in future earnings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Heating, Ventila- tion, & Air Conditioning (HVAC) program gener- ated an estimated $20 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 243 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecond- ary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $82,200 per person. In present value terms, an average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $682,300 in future earnings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Electrical Engineer- ing Technology program generated an estimated

impact of $48,500 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $701,200 in future earnings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Construction Tech- nology program generated an estimated $3.1 mil- lion in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 82 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Applied Science degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $37,600 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $552,700 in future earnings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ MCC’s Applied Integrated Technology/Mechatron- ics program is scheduled to launch in the fall of 2016. After the first full academic year, EMSI estimates that there will be 20 MCC completers in the workforce generating an estimated $933 thou- sand in added income to the regional economy. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students will generate an estimated annual economic impact of $45,600 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of approximately $727,600 in future earnings as a result of this education. ◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Mechanical Engi- neering Technology program generated an esti- mated $7.4 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 115 MCC com- pleters in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Applied Science degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $64,700 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $682,700 in future earnings as a result of this education.

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◆ ◆ In 2014, completers of MCC’s Automotive Tech- nology program generated an estimated $17.8 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 279 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students gener- ate an annual economic impact of $63,800 per person. In present value terms, an average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $653,100 in future earnings as a result of this education.

$21.4 million in added income to the regional economy. As of 2014, there are 102 MCC com- pleters in the workforce who achieved an Asso- ciate in Applied Science degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual eco- nomic impact of $209,100 per person. In present value terms, an average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $895,400 in future earnings as a result of this education.

MONROE COMMUN I T Y COL L EGE | ECONOM I C MODE L I NG S P EC I A L I S T S I NT L .  6

Economic Impact Results

OFFICE TECHNOLOGY

TABLE A1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Office Tech- nology Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $1,814  Initial Effect $1,046  Direct Effect $173  Indirect Effect $36  Induced Effect $560 TABLE A2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Office Tech- nology Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 254 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $7,100 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $427,100

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Office Technology program generated an estimated $1.8 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 254 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a post- secondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $7,100 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $427,100 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE A1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Office Technol- ogy Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE A2: MCC Completers 2003-2014

Associate in Applied Science

Certificate

Earnings for CIP 52.0408

Earnings for Control Group

30

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

25

20

15

10

5

0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age

7

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COMPUTER INFORMATION SYSTEMS

TABLE B1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Computer Information Systems Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $15,007  Initial Effect $8,781  Direct Effect $1,472  Indirect Effect $316  Induced Effect $4,438 TABLE B2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Computer Information Systems Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 173 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $86,900 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $1,049,500

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Computer Information Systems program generated an estimated $15 mil- lion in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 173 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a post- secondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $86,900 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $1,049,500 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE B1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Computer Infor- mation Systems Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE B2: MCC Computer Information Systems Com- pleters 2003-2014

Earnings for CIP 11.0501

Earnings for Control Group

Associate in Applied Science

Associate in Science

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

60

50

40

30

20

10

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Age

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

TABLE C1: 2014 Economic Impact of Information Tech- nology Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $7,180  Initial Effect $4,125  Direct Effect $740  Indirect Effect $161  Induced Effect $2,154 TABLE C2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Information Technology Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 57 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $126,700 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $979,400

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Information Technol- ogy program generated an estimated $7.2 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 57 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved a postsecondary certificate in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $126,700 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $979,400 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE C1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Information Technology Program Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE C2: MCC Information Technology Completers 2003-2014

Professional Certificate

Earnings for CIP 11.0103

Earnings for Control Group

30

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

25

20

15

10

5

0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age

9

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HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY/MEDICAL RECORDS

TABLE D1: 2014 Economic Impact of Health Information Technology/Medical Records Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $7,026  Initial Effect $4,041  Direct Effect $731  Indirect Effect $153  Induced Effect $2,101 TABLE D2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Health Infor- mation Technology/Medical Records Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 145 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $48,500 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $701,200

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Health Information Tech- nology/Medical Records program generated an estimated $7 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 145 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Applied Science degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $48,500 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $701,200 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE D2: Health Information Technology/Medical Records Completers 2003-2014

FIGURE D1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Health Infor- mation Technology/Medical Records Program Completers compared to Control Group

Associate in Applied Science

Earnings for CIP 51.0707

Earnings for Control Group

30

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

25

20

15

10

5

0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age

10

MONROE COMMUN I T Y COL L EGE | ECONOM I C MODE L I NG S P EC I A L I S T S I NT L . 

CONSTRUCTION TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM

TABLE E1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Construc- tion Technology Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $3,096  Initial Effect $1,781  Direct Effect $236  Indirect Effect $49  Induced Effect $1,030 TABLE E2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Construction Technology Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 82 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $37,600 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $552,700

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Construction Technology program generated an estimated $3.1 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multi- plier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 82 MCC com- pleters in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Applied Science degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students gener- ate an annual economic impact of $37,600 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $552,700 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE E1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Construction Technology Program Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE E2: MCC Construction Technology Completers 2003-2014

Associate in Applied Science

Earnings for CIP 15.1001

Earnings for Control Group

30

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

25

20

15

10

5

0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age

11

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APPLIED INTEGRATED TECHNOLOGY/MECHATRONICS PROGRAM

TABLE F1: Simulated Economic Impact of MCC’s Applied Integrated Technology/Mechatronics Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $933  Initial Effect $602  Direct Effect $78  Indirect Effect $15  Induced Effect $237 TABLE F2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Applied Inte- grated Technology/Mechatronics Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 20 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $45,600 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $727,600

MCC is developing an Applied Integrated Technology/ Mechatronics program which is scheduled to launch in the fall of 2016. Due to the fact that no completers are currently active in the workforce, EMSI was not able to use our standard methodology to estimate the economic impact of this program. However, we were able to simulate the economic impact of the program based on data from MCC indicating that the program is likely to produce roughly 20 completers per year, split evenly between associate’s degrees and postsec- ondary vocational certificates. Rather than providing the economic impact of the program in 2014, these data should be viewed as the economic impact of the program after its first full academic year. The data in Table F2 are particularly helpful for this program, as they indicate the economic impact per completer that can be expected as the program is scaled up in future years. After the first full academic year, MCC’s Applied Integrated Technology/Mechatronics program is expected to generate an estimated $933 thousand in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages to be collected by former students as a direct result of their educa- tion, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. After the first full academic year, EMSI estimates that there will be 20 MCC completers in the work- force who will have achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). 2 Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students will generate an annual economic impact of $45,600 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $727,600 in future earnings as a result of this education. 2 To determine regional attrition and employment rates for this pro- gram, EMSI averaged the rates for the original six Phase II programs analyzed in this report.

FIGURE G1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Applied Inte- grated Technology/Mechatronics Completers compared to Control Group

Earnings for CIP 14.4201

Earnings for Control Group

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age

12

MONROE COMMUN I T Y COL L EGE | ECONOM I C MODE L I NG S P EC I A L I S T S I NT L . 

MECHANICAL ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM

TABLE G1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Mechanical Engineering Technology Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact $7,465  Initial Effect $4,669  Direct Effect $629  Indirect Effect $124  Induced Effect $2,043 TABLE G2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Mechanical Engineering Technology Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 115 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $64,700 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $682,700

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Mechanical Engineer- ing Technology program generated an estimated $7.4 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their educa- tion, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 115 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Applied Sci- ence degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $64,700 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $682,700 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE G1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Mechanical Engineering Technology Program Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE G2: MCC Mechanical Engineering Technology Completers 2003-2014

Associates

Certificates

Earnings for CIP 15.0805

Earnings for Control Group

30

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

25

20

15

10

5

0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age

13

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PRECISION MACHINING & TOOLING PROGRAM

TABLE H1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Precision Machining & Tooling Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $20,156  Initial Effect $13,424  Direct Effect $1,752  Indirect Effect $344  Induced Effect $4,635 TABLE H2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Precision Machining & Tooling Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 267 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $75,500 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $694,300

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Precision Machining & Tooling program generated an estimated $20.2 mil- lion in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 267 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a post- secondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $75,500 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $694,300 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE H1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Precision Machining & Tooling Program Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE H2: MCC Precision Machining & Tooling Com- pleters 2003-2014

Associates

Certificates

Earnings for CIP 48.0501

Earnings for Control Group

45 35 40 30 25 15 20 10

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

5 0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age

14

MONROE COMMUN I T Y COL L EGE | ECONOM I C MODE L I NG S P EC I A L I S T S I NT L . 

OPTICAL SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM

TABLE J1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Optical Systems Technology Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $3,575  Initial Effect $2,191  Direct Effect $312  Indirect Effect $64  Induced Effect $1,007 TABLE J2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Optical Systems Technology Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $121,500 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $702,300 29

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Optical Systems Tech- nology program generated an estimated $3.5 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 29 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a post- secondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $121,500 per person. An average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $702,300 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE J1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Optical Systems Technology Program Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE J2: MCC Optical Systems Technology Completers 2003-2014

Associates

Certificates

Earnings for CIP 14.0401

Earnings for Control Group

10

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

8

6

4

2

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

0

20

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Age

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HEATING, VENTILATION, & AIR CONDITIONING (HVAC) PROGRAM

TABLE K1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Heating, Ventilation, & Air Conditioning (HVAC) Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $19,967  Initial Effect $11,924  Direct Effect $1,643  Indirect Effect $337  Induced Effect $6,063 TABLE K2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Heating, Ven- tilation, & Air Conditioning Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 243 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $82,200 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $682,300

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Heating, Ventilation, & Air Conditioning (HVAC) program generated an estimated $20 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other busi- nesses. As of 2014, there are 243 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a postsecondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $82,200 per person. In present value terms, an average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $682,300 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE K1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Heating, Ventila- tion, & Air Conditioning (HVAC) compared to Control Group

FIGURE K2: MCC Heating, Ventilation, & Air Condition- ing (HVAC) Completers 2003-2014

Earnings for CIP 15.0501

Earnings for Control Group

Associates

Certificates

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

35 30

25

20

15

10

5 0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

20

30

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70

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ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM

TABLE L1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Electrical Engineering Technology Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $21,381  Initial Effect $13,382  Direct Effect $1,579  Indirect Effect $317  Induced Effect $6,102 TABLE L2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Electrical Engineering Technician Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 102 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $209,100 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $895,400

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Electrical Engineering Technology program generated an estimated $21.4 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their educa- tion, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 102 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved an Associate in Applied Sci- ence degree in this field. Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $209,100 per person. In present value terms, an average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $895,400 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE L1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Electrical Engi- neering Technology Program Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE L2: MCC Electrical Engineering Technology Completers 2003-2014

Associates

Certificates

Earnings for CIP 15.0303

Earnings for Control Group

10

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

16

12

8

4

0

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM

TABLE M2: Metrics per Worker for MCC’s Automotive Technology Program Field Value Number of Completers in Workforce in 2014 279 Annual Economic Impact Per Completer $63,800 Estimated Lifetime Earnings Per Completer $653,100 TABLE M1: 2014 Economic Impact of MCC’s Automotive Technology Program Field Value ($K) Total Economic Impact in 2014 $17,765  Initial Effect $10,452  Direct Effect $1,400  Indirect Effect $275  Induced Effect $5,638

In 2014, completers of MCC’s Automotive Technol- ogy program generated an estimated $17.8 million in added income to the regional economy. This figure represents the increased wages collected by former students as a direct result of their education, the increased output of businesses that employ these students, and the multiplier effects that occur as both parties spend money at other businesses. As of 2014, there are 279 MCC completers in the workforce who achieved some credential in this field (either a post- secondary vocational award or an associate’s degree). Whether employed in their field or in another field, these students generate an annual economic impact of $63,800 per person. In present value terms, an average MCC completer in this program will collect a present value of $653,100 in future earnings as a result of this education.

FIGURE M1: Lifetime Earnings Curve of Automotive Technology Completers compared to Control Group

FIGURE M2: MCC Automotive Technology Completers 2003-2014

Earnings for CIP 47.0604

Earnings for Control Group

Associates

Certificates

$80 $60 $70 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0

50

40

30

20

10

67

Average Annual Earnings ($K)

0

20

30

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70

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Appendix A: About the Model and Data

example, many professional occupations, such as law- yers and professors, will continue to see appreciation in annual earnings late into their working careers, whereas occupations that require intense physical labor such as electricians and automotive repair see peek wages much earlier in their careers. Likewise, some workers, such as those in management and education, experience a greater return for educational attainment than other types of workers. Another methodological component that EMSI considers in this analysis is counterfactuals, or opportunity costs. Essentially, counterfactuals are deductions from gross measurements to account for alternate possibilities. These deductions account for positive effects that would have manifested even without the presence of the thing being measured. The challenge in this case is to determine what pro- portion of the total economic impact generated by MCC alumni should be attributed to the education these individuals received at MCC. In other words, what are these MCC alumni doing in the economy that other workers could not do? Cursory reflection is enough to reveal that in most cases employers have the option to substitute one type of worker for another. For example, if a hospital is unable to find a qualified registered nurse, methods of operation could be adjusted so that workers of other occupational categories (e.g.: nursing assistance, LPNs, etc.) could take on the work that would have been assigned to the registered nurse. The ease with which businesses can replace the knowledge, skills, and abilities of one

METHODOLOGY In this report, EMSI aims to assess the economic impact of twelve Monroe Community College (MCC) academic programs on the local economy. EMSI also has a college-wide economic impact study (EIS) that analyzes the broad impact of the college in terms of college operations, student spending, and student productivity. The strength of the EIS model is that it encompasses all forms of impact that a college may have on a community, but it lacks the ability to narrow in on specific impacts of particular programs. This study focuses on the economic impacts gener- ated by students from twelve specific programs, with particular focus on their future productivity in the workforce. The unique challenge of the program specific model is predicting the lifetime earnings curve of workers by occupation. Research on the relationship between earnings, education and experience extends back to economist Jacob Mincer, who first explored the issue in the 1930s. At the time, he developed a model to explain how education and experience affects earnings, later to be termed the Mincer Curve. Since that time, economists have continued to use and improve upon the tools developed by Mincer, but EMSI is the first to integrate occupational specific effects into its model. This is critically important for producing a program specific economic impact model because individuals in different occupations receive different returns on education and experience. For

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worker for another is that occupational category’s marginal rate of substitution. This rate of substitu- tion varies depending on the occupation, with some nearly indispensable occupations receiving very little reduction of the gross effects and others more trans- ferable occupations receiving large reductions. If data existed that indicates the alternate staff- ing options of various industry groups, which did not also alter the other potential variables (such as cost and availability of labor), EMSI could use these data to estimate the elasticity of labor between different types of workers. However, in the absence of such data, EMSI estimates the elasticity with available empirical data in the form of compatibility scores. To determine these substitution effects, EMSI used its own proprietary compatibility index, which mea- sures the similarity in knowledge, skills, and abilities between different types of workers. All 784 5-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes were ranked on a “dispensability index” based on the number of other workers in the region that were compatible enough to effectively perform the same basic work functions. DISCOUNT RATE The estimated lifetime earnings values shown in this report are calculated based on the expected earnings of completers for each year of their careers. These values are not reported in gross terms but rather discounted to account for future value. This discount rate converts future monies to their present value. In investment analysis, the discount rate accounts for two fundamental principles: 1) the time value of money, and 2) the level of risk that an investor is willing to accept. Time value of money refers to the value of money after interest or inflation has accrued over a given length of time. An investor must be will- ing to forgo the use of his money in the present if he wishes to receive compensation for it in the future. Typically this minimum rate of return is determined by the known returns of less risky assets where the

investors might alternatively consider placing their money. In this study, EMSI assume a 4.5% discount rate for students. 3 ABOUT THE DATA The program specific model utilizes seven-year panel data from the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata (PUMS) 2008-2012. The PUMS data contain detailed records of employment status, occu- pational category, earnings, age, and numerous other fields for roughly 1.4 million workers per year. Using these data, EMSI ran a multivariable regression to estimate wages based on occupation, years of educa- tion, years of experience, and other control variables. To determine economic impacts, we rely on a specialized Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model to calculate the additional income created in the MCC Service Area economy as a result of the added skills of MCC students. EMSI’s Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrix (MR-SAM) represents the flow of all economic transactions in a given region. It replaces EMSI’s previous input-output (IO) model, which operated with some 1,100 industries, four lay- ers of government, a single household consumption sector, and an investment sector. The old IO model was used to simulate the ripple effects (i.e., multi- pliers) in the regional economy as a result of indus- tries entering or exiting the region. The SAM model performs the same tasks as the old IO model, but it also does much more. Along with the same 1,100 industries, government, household and investment sectors embedded in the old IO tool, the SAM exhibits much more functionality, a greater amount of data, and a higher level of detail on the demographic and occupational components of jobs (16 demographic cohorts and about 750 occupations are characterized).

3 This value is based on the baseline forecasts for the 10-year zero coupon bond discount rate published by the Congressional Budget Office. See the Congressional Budget Office, Student Loan and Pell Grant Programs - March 2012 Baseline.

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Appendix B: Occupations Associated with Educational Programs

The earnings data forecasted in this report are directly tied to the occupations that MCC alumni are presumed to have entered after receiving their degree or certificate. The tables in this section display the occupations that MCC linked to the MCC edu- cational programs. Each table contains the following information, SOC code, job title, the number of 2014 regional jobs, regional median hourly earnings, and the average annual job openings forecasted by EMSI between 2014 and 2018. Average annual openings include both new job growth and turnover job replace-

ments, making it a more comprehensive figure than net new job growth. To select these occupations EMSI started with its default program to occupation mappings, which are derived from the CIP-to-SOC crosswalk published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Cen- ter for Educational Statistics. The default mappings were modified to fit MCC through a process including input from College faculty and local business and industry to better reflect the hiring patterns of the Finger Lakes regional economy.

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