ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Executive Summary

3 The future role of gas: several paths to achieving the EU targets TYNDP looks twenty years ahead. Performing the TYNDP assessment in a meaningful way requires the definition of scenarios that cover the reasonable scope of the gas and energy sector evolution. This requires an open-minded approach to the significant changes that the European energy sector will undergo in the coming decades to ensure the energy transition, taking into consideration the ambitious European climate and ener- gy targets set for 2030 and beyond. For this fifth edition of TYNDP ENTSOG developed four demand scenarios, among which three achieve the EU 2030 energy and climate targets, taking differentiated paths towards these targets. To ensure a meaningful TYNDP, it is fundamental that the assessment of infrastructure needs and of projects is handled for all three of the on-target scenarios. The demand level for the off-target scenario falls within the range of the other scenarios and has not been covered in the assessment. To develop the scenarios, ENTSOG first elaborated storylines based on a number of parameters, ranging from general parameters such as economic conditions and achievement of the EU climate targets, to more specific factors influencing the role of gas in the heating, power and transport sectors. Regarding the power sector, ENTSOG has strived to align as much as possible the scenarios with the Visions developed by ENTSO-E for the electricity TYNDP 2016. For each scenario, based on the Vision best matching in terms of storyline, ENTSOG used the electricity demand, generation capacities and generation mix from the ENTSO-E TYNDP scenario development process, as a basis for the annual gas demand in the power sector. This alignment further allows the TYNDP 2017 scenar- ios to reflect an overall view of the power sector, not only on gas-fired, but also on coal-fired and renewable generation. For their respective TYNDPs 2018, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E have committed to align even further. The related scenario develop- ment process, which has been launched in Spring 2016, will be fully common, in accordance with the consistent and interlinked model the ENTSOs have to deliver under Art. 11(8) of Regulation (EU) No. 347/2013. Scenarios cover both the annual and peak demand perspectives. Indeed the nation- al standards, set in regard to the peak demand which has to be secured, impose that gas operators design their infrastructure accordingly. Gas demand is highly temper- ature dependent, the massive development of generation from intermittent renewa- bles will add even more volatility to the gas demand in the future.

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017– Executive Summary | 11