ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Executive Summary

7,000 TWh/y

Power demand – coal displacement by gas Power demand – without coal displacement by gas

6,000

18%

21%

27% 31%

5,000

4,000

Final Demand

3,000

Historic gas demand

2,000

1,000

0

2005

Slow Progression 2030

Blue Transition 2030

Green Evolution 2030

EU Green Revolution 2030

Figure 3.3: Energy efficiency gains by 2030

In terms of CO ² emission reductions: apart from Slow Progression, where the displacement of coal by gas does not materialise, all scenarios reach the objective of 40% reduction compared to the 1990 level. This is a result of the increasing role of renewable generation supported by low-carbon natural gas-fired generation as well as the energy efficiency gains. These results also reflect the foreseen increase of biomethane production in the European gas supply.

mt/y

2,500

2,000

21% 41% 42% 46%

1,500

1,000

500

0

1990

Slow Progression

Blue Transition

Green Evolution

EU Green Revolution

CO

2 Emission (mt/y)

Figure 3.4: CO ² emissions reduction by 2030 for the overall power and final gas demand sectors

The TYNDP demand scenarios indicate different possible paths for the overall gas demand, where achieving the European energy and climate 2030 targets could either be met with a continued decrease or a rebound of the demand. All four scenarios are analysed in detail in the Demand chapter. To ensure its meaningful- ness, the TYNDP assessment is performed on the three on-target scenarios, cover- ing a reasonable and possible range of future gas demand.

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