ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Executive Summary

Security of supply

In some specific areas, capacities do not yet comply with or are only slightly beyond the N-1 for ESW-CBA  1) criteria, raising security of supply issues.

2030 Low

2020 Low

N-1 for ESW-CBA, Green Evolution, Low infrastructure level, existing infrastructure and FID projects

90%

120%

>120%

100%

0%

Figure 4.8: N-1 for ESW-CBA, Green Evolution, Low infrastructure level (existing infrastructure and FID projects)

Access to diversified supply sources is key to ensure security of supply in the event of a supply- or infrastructure-related crisis situation. The gas infrastructure already ensures a level of diversification resulting in a high resilience in many parts of Europe. The gas system is able to cope with a wide range of route disruption cases. In the case of Ukraine route disruption, the situation for the South-Eastern part of Europe is foreseen to improve significantly by 2020 thanks to the commissioning of projects which have already taken their final investment decision. Mitigation of residual risks may call for additional infrastructure reinforcements. The TYNDP includes advanced projects as well as projects from the 2  nd PCI list which are able to address these residual risks. In the Baltic region, TYNDP advanced projects also have a positive impact on addressing the risks stemming from a Belarus route disruption by developing cross border capacities between the concerned countries.

 1) The N-1 for ESW-CBA indicator stemming from the CBA methodology derives from Regulation (EC) 994/2010, but shows some differences with the N-1 for ESW-CBA calculated by Competent Authorities (in particular calculation for future time horizons and consideration of the lesser-of-rule on capacities).

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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017– Executive Summary