ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Executive Summary

Security of Supply The N-1 for ESW-CBA situation is improved for a number of countries by the imple- mentation of advanced projects. The risks in the case of disruption of Ukrainian transit are also significantly mitigated. The implementation of further 2  nd PCI list projects beyond 2020 would generally suppress any risk of demand curtailment in case of Ukraine or Belarus route disruption. (see figures 4.15 and 4.16)

Green Evolution 2020 Advanced

Green Evolution 2030 PCI

Green Evolution 2017 Low

N-1 for ESW-CBA, Blue Transition and EU Green Revolution, DC, Advanced infrastructure level

90%

120%

>120%

100%

0%

Figure 4.15: N-1 for ESW-CBA considering advanced projects in 2020 and 2 nd list projects in 2030, Green Evolution

UA disruption Green Evolution 2020 Advanced

UA disruption Green Evolution 2030 PCI

UA disruption Green Evolution 2017 Low

Remaining Flexibility

Disruption Demand

0% – 20%

20% – 100%

0% – 20% 20% – 50% 50% – 100%

20%

20%

100%

Remaining Flexibility

Disrupted Demand

100%

50%

0%

0%

Figure 4.16: Risk of demand curtailment in case of Ukrainian transit disruption considering advanced projects in 2020 and 2 nd list projects in 2030, Green Evolution, Design Case peak day

Remaining Flexibility

Disruption Demand

0% – 20%

20% – 100%

0% – 20% 20% – 50% 50% – 100%

28 |

Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017– Executive Summary