IIW White Paper

Globalisation: PEI is operating in a global market with fierce competition. Deregulation, unification of technical criteria, and, hopefully, a globalisation in codes and standards, are the necessary goals. The incredible advances in computing power and in the user-friendliness of numerical software, enable the increased usage of more refined calculation methods and an increase in the usage of Design by Analysis (DBA) in design checks of PE. This, in turn, may lead to a consolidated, consistent, and, possibly, internationally unified basis for Design by Formulae (DBF) sections, for the determination of required wall thicknesses. Usage of DBA will lead to an increase of understanding of the structures’ behaviour, and it may increase the awareness of the effects of design details and of geometric defects, like out-of-roundness, peaking, misalignment, bulges and dents. Advances in welding technology, especially with regard to higher product quality, improvement of performance, homogeneity of weld joints and higher weld speeds, create pressure for a re-think of NDT requirements and defect acceptance limits. Present limits are mostly based on what can be detected and readily measured by RT, and what can be achieved by reasonably good manufacturing practices of long ago. Present requirements with regard to the amount of spot testing hardly reflect achievements in welding technology and design methods, nor do they take into account modern NDT methods, nor present in-service inspection requirements. 9.6 Automotive sector The automotive industry is forecast to grow annually with 13.7% to be compared with >20% for China. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) stands for 40% of the growth. North America is expected to increase their car fleet with 9.5% per year ( Figure 9.12 ).

Global Update - Assembly outlook After 2011 emerging market production dominates

For the first time in history, the number of vehicles produced in developing and emerging markets in 2011 was greater than the number of vehicles produced in mature markets. Sustainable demand for light vehicles in emerging markets will underpin organic growth for the foreseeable future.

Global: light vehicle assembly by market type 2000 - 2018 ( millions)

Global: contribution to growth by region 2011 - 2018

70

Brazil 7.6% China 41.0% India 13.1%

AP

60

NA

50

EU

40

Brazil 7.6%

SA

30

20

Russia 5.1%

EE

10

MEA

0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Autofacts 2012 Q1 Data Release

Mature Emerging

PwC

Figure 9.12 – The car industry is the main driver for development of joining technologies for sheet materials (Reproduced courtesy: Autofacts BRIC Outlook)

116

Through Optimum Use and Innovation of Welding and Joining Technologies

Improving Global Quality of Life