2040 Comprehensive Plan: Envision Shakopee

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TRANSPORTATIONANALYSIS AND RESULTS

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The forecasting effort for Envision Shakopee included four scenarios. These scenarios were based upon Scott County’s 2040 TAZ analysis including projected roadway improvements from fiscally constrained to fiscally unconstrained. All four of these scenarios are included on the following pages with summaries of these scenarios below. • The 2014 Validation Scenario, which includes all roadway capacity expansions prior to 2014, serves as a baseline to which future scenarios can be compared. This scenario shows that the average daily traffic volumes on the two river crossings (Hwy 41 and Hwy 169) exceed the daily capacity. At the daily traffic level, all other roads are operating under acceptable conditions. There may still be areas of congestion during peak hours on some of these other roadways. • 2040 Scenario 1: No roadway improvements. This still includes capacity expansions from 2014 to 2017, but assumes no additional investment beyond that. Scenario 1 shows what traffic conditions would be on Scott County roads if population and employment increased as expected, but no additional roadway capacity was built. In this case, the average daily traffic on several roadways in Shakopee may exceed their daily capacity.

• 2040 Scenario 2: Funded Roadway Improvements, which includes capacity expansions in Capital Improvement Plans (CIPs) or the State Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP) between 2017 and 2026, or 2020 respectively. • 2040 Scenario 3: Potential Roadway Improvements for Study, which includes capacity expansions that may be implemented beyond 2026. Scenario 3 shows what traffic conditions would be on Scott County roads if population and employment increased as expected, and all currently planned additional roadway capacity was built. Currently planned capacity expansions do not necessarily line up with where over-capacity conditions are anticipated. For example, expansions such as widening 140th Street (CSAH 42) between Marschall Rd (CSAH 17) and Mystic Lake Drive (CSAH 83) will provide additional capacity for the 14,400 expected vehicles on this link. However, with no planned river crossing expansions, the congestion on Highways 41, 101 and 169 across the Minnesota River will not be addressed.

ENVISION SHAKOPEE | SECTION IV: BUILT ENVIRONMENT