URI_Research_Magazine_Momentum_Spring_2016_Melissa-McCarthy

be skeptical? These are some of the questions his future research will answer. Now that Krueger has opened the door to a greater appreciation for high- quality exit polls, his new project focuses on polls taken earlier in presidential elections. In another collaboration with Best, Krueger is looking at how early opinion polls influence media interest in candidates and how they affect politics throughout the election cycle. He also is interested in examining the level of attention these polls receive despite historically having no predictive validity on the eventual winning candidate. Media polls can lead to irrelevant candidate predictions and false narratives about voters. An example of Krueger’s current focus is Donald Trump and the connection between his prominence in the media and his high rank in these early polls. Krueger’s new project in exploring and analyzing the relationship between early polls, media attention, and candidate politics aims to answer some of the questions raised above. “We have good evidence that predictions of general elections are meaningless nine to 12 months before an election, but a great deal of serious media attention focuses on how Senator Clinton or Senator Sanders would do when running up against Donald Trump or Senator Cruz,” Krueger says. “Looking back historically, these early hypothetical polls have been as helpful as a coin flip in predicting the winner. We and our news media are wasting valuable time and, worse, voters are making decisions about who to support and who is viable based on empty calorie surveys. We can do better. And if we are going to elevate the level of political discussion in the United States, a key place to begin is an improved understanding of how polls do, and do not, aid in this national discussion.”

Brian Krueger Professor and Department Chai r Pol i t ical Science

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Spring | 2016 Page 7