Rapport

FFI-RAPPORT 16/00707

Appendix A Scenario Method

A.1 Definitions – Intentional Acts

The

actor

parameter describes the actors who could have the intentions and capacities to pose a

threat to the Piql Preservation Services. The relevant values assigned here are state, network,

company and individual.

state

is a sovereign political entity, meaning that it is subject to no one’s laws but the ones

they themselves choose to be subjected to. As such, it is the highest level of political

organisation in the international system of actors.

network

is here understood as a form of organisation which lacks a formal structure with

hierarchical levels and a clearly defined leadership. Rather, networks are made up of nodes.

Some of the nodes may have a more central role than others, but they operate largely

independently from one another. The nodes may be located in different countries, and cross-

border operations are common where information and resources may flow across national

borders, due to the advances made in telecommunications. A network may have an ideological

or economic impetus. Examples of the former could include such wide varieties as terrorist cells

and volunteering organisations, while the latter could include Mafias and cartels. A group, an

organisation, a society or an association are here understood as synonyms to a network.

company

is any entity that engages in some form of business to make money, i.e. making,

buying or selling goods or providing services in exchange for money [72]. Companies can be

structured in different ways, but they all have a hierarchical structure with a clearly defined

leadership which delegates tasks and manages its personnel in hierarchical levels from top to

bottom. The level of responsibility and therefore liability is similarly diluted as we move down a

level. A firm, a business, a corporation or an enterprise are here understood as synonyms to a

company.

individual

is primarily understood as a person acting alone and on behalf of him- or herself,

but nevertheless with the potential to greatly influence outcomes. He or she may also act with

one or more accomplishes, and for reasons bigger than his or her idiosyncratic interest, but he or

she is not connected directly to a larger context, such a network.

The

goal

parameter specifies the possible goals that a threat actor would hope to achieve, or the

incentives for their actions towards the Piql Preservation Services. The relevant values assigned

here are political power, market power, economic gain and idiosyncratic interest.

Political power

can be gained from the possession of an object – in this case, the information on

the piqlFilm – in the sense that the knowledge of what is on the film can give a threat actor

increased influential power on a general level. An example would be if a state acquired

instructions to build a new type of weapon system. Even without the intention of using said