Rapport

160

FFI-RAPPORT 16/00707

B.12 Nuclear War

Scenario number 12

Nuclear war

Scenario justification

Justification

: The event of a nuclear bomb is included in the assessment as one representation of

all the improbable events that may affect the Piql Preservation Services during the course of 500

years. Yet, we cannot categorically rule out that they will occur as the level of uncertainty is so

high in this assessment, so they must be included. We chose this as our unlikely scenario, as the

effects of nuclear detonations have been demonstrated, and as such we can apply these to the Piql

Preservation Services, as opposed to an event we have no knowledge of.

Purpose

: The purpose of the scenario is also connected to the level of uncertainty associated with

the longevity of 500 years. Its main goal is to emphasise the fact that during the course of such a

long time the Piql Preservation Services can be caught in something that is much bigger than

itself, making its safety and security depend on events and decisions far outside its control. In

such a situation, being able to correctly analyse ones situation and ones surroundings, and most

importantly be willing to quickly adapt to new situations is vital. In this case, such willingness can

allow the Piql Preservation Services to be moved out of harm’s way, or be annihilated along with

everything else when the nuclear detonation is a fact.

Scenario outline

The scenario is set in the geographical zone Middle (Middle East). In a future setting, the days of

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) are back, yet the situation is different than it was during the

century. There are a greater number of active nuclear powers now, all of whom use deterrence

as their main policy. This means that the proliferation of nuclear weapons is higher than ever

before and more regions of the world are directly exposed to the threat. Countless warheads are

directed at various major cities at all times. One such city is a major metropolis in the Middle

East. A glitch in the launch system of a major nuclear power releases a missile on said city by

mistake. Even though the piqlVault is not situated within the radius of ground zero where heavily

built concrete structures are severely damaged and fatalities approach 100 %, it is still within the

air blast and thermal radiation radius where most residential houses collapse and fatalities are

widespread. The Piql Preservation Services is not the main target – it was simply placed in an area

more vulnerable to an attack – and because of that it is destroyed as a casualty of war.

Cause

Type of risk

(Hazard/Threat)

Threat: A thermal nuclear detonation. The global political environment is

such that you have a nuclear warhead directed at your city at all times.

Intentional

(Yes/No/Both)

Both. The threat is intentional, i.e. to have a nuclear warhead directed at

the city at all time, but the actual detonation was an accident caused by a

malfunctioning launch system.