Rapport

FFI-RAPPORT 16/00707

6.3 Scenario Method

To make a representative and accurate selection of scenarios, one which we can trust will cover

most or all of the entire spectrum of risk against the safety and security of the Piql Preservation

Services, we have chosen a method of scenario selection known as morphological analysis.

Morphological analysis is described as a non-quantitative method to structure and analyse

complex problems within a wide number of subject areas [39 p.7-8, 40 p.10]. This section will

give a brief introduction to the process and utilisation of the method, after which morphological

analysis will be applied to the research question in this report.

Morphological analysis (MA) is best described as a collective term for a variety of different

techniques, all of which have a common purpose: to establish a complete overview of all the

possible aspects and solutions for a given problem [40 p.10]. The way the method accomplishes

this task is by producing a set of scenario classes, defined as a set of challenges or a category of

possible outcomes that have important common denominators and which therefore naturally

belong together. In this way MA goes beyond the individual scenarios. It is close to impossible

to create an infinite number of scenarios which satisfy the scenario criteria of being consistent,

relevant and plausible, that can rightly claim to cover

all

risk to a certain entity. Instead, by

creating these scenario classes, MA is a method to better map the sample space and ensure an

adequate breadth in the scenario selection [40 p.9].

The goal is to ensure that all relevant challenges are represented without making the total set of

scenarios unmanageably large. MA tries to extend the space for possible outcomes in order to

reduce the risk of omitting important scenarios, however unlikely they may be [39 p.10].

Naturally, the more unlikely they are, the easier it is to overlook them, which underlines the

importance of correctly applying a method, such as MA, which helps us avoid this mistake. In

our risk assessment the uncertainty of which risks might harm the Piql Preservation Services is

quite high, and it is absurd to believe that we are able to ensure coverage of

all

possible

outcomes. History has taught us that there will always be developments and events that are not

foreseen. The aim is simply to reduce the risk of leaving out important scenarios and

developments, but the risk can never be eliminated completely [39 p.10].

Together the scenario classes represent the total space of possible outcomes for a given problem

area. This means that there are no scenarios that cannot be assigned into one or another scenario

class, and that there does not exist a scenario which falls outside of this space. The sum of

scenarios is therefore meant to be both exhaustive and mutually exclusive.

As stated, the morphological method is a collective term for many different techniques. The

technique which figures most promptly in this report is the morphological box. This technique

consists of two phases – the analysis phase and the synthesis phase – each of which contains

three steps.

For a more comprehensive description of the method, see [41, 40, 39, 42]