Extract - A risk assessment of the Piql Preservation Service

Zone Example regions

Climate

Developmental level

Political stability

Medium/low (yet pockets of higher levels within countries) Weak economy, poorly developed infrastructure, highly unstable energy supply in certain countries, low standard on road network, poorly developed Ecom networks, medium degree of law and order, unsatisfactory level of crisis management. Possible hazards/threats: Loss of utilities, loss of communications, theft. Medium Growing economy, adequate infrastructure, adequate energy supply, medium transport networks, adequately developed Ecom networks, good degree of law and order, ok crisis management. Possible hazards/threats: Loss of utilities, loss of communications, theft, espionage, sabotage

Low Low degree of accountability to

Subtropical Annual mean temp.: 25°C

population, incidents of violence/terrorism, low government effectiveness, little rule of law, poor control of corruption, potentially unstable borders. Possible threats: Unstable borders, war, terrorism, theft. Medium Medium degree of accountability to population, some incidents of violence/terrorism, adequate government effectiveness, low rule of law, problems with control of corruption, stable borders.

Northern Africa, Middle East, Indian subcontinent

Possible hazards: Sand storms, extreme temperatures, flood, hurricane, volcanic activity, earthquake

MIDDLE

Tropical Annual mean temp.: 20°C Possible hazards: Flood, hurricane, extreme temperatures, earthquake, volcanic activity

South America, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, Australia

SOUTH

Possible threats: Terrorism, theft

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Scenario method

6.1 Unintentional events To categorize all unintentional events which could affect a nation’s security, a modified version of morphological analysis has been utilised, where the only two parameters were cause and primary effect .

Figure 6.1: Matrix for analysis of scenario classes of unintentional events Cause Primary effect Meteorological phenomenon Mass destruction Geological phenomenon

Larger environmental damage

Cosmic phenomenon

Considerable material damage or economic loss

Biological phenomenon

Loss of societal functions

Technical errors

Lack of vital resources

Human or organisational errors Politically motivated criminal acts Economically motivated criminal acts Usurpation of power/sovereignty Destructively motivated criminal acts

Public trauma

Weakened physical or psychological integrity

Limitations on national sovereignty

Based on the causes and effects outlined above, the following scenario classes in the category of unintentional events has been identified: natural disasters, failure or malfunction, sudden illness and aggregated individual acts.

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