African Wildlife & Environment Issue 79

CONSERVATION

From this model, four distinct national security risks arise, each requiring different policy remedies. These are shown in square boxes with rounded corners on the model. From top to bottom, these risks are nuanced with different drivers.The loss of national food security is driven by the interaction between Mode 'C' vulnerability (soil desiccation) and rising population numbers needing to be fed. The reduced possibility of drought-proofing is primarily driven by Mode 'D' vulnerability, in conjunction with the loss of infrastructure needed for the strategic storage of water between droughts. This is where infrastructure integrity becomes a distinct national security risk. The loss of national energy security is directly linked to the reduction in assurance of supply that occurs naturally when infrastructure fails or becomes inadequate. South Africa is currently water and energy constrained, both easily understandable as significant national security risks in terms of this model. However, the most significant of all risk is that shown to the right of the model. 'King’s Demographic Trap' is directly linked to increased morbidity and mortality as the population becomes vulnerable to drought and food shortages. Central to King’s Demographic Trap is the natural tendency for a rapidly growing population, often associated with increasing poverty, to outstrip the availability of food and other resources needed to sustain social cohesion. Conclusion South Africa is both water and energy constrained. These two factors both have an environmental component, so they are intractably linked to our national security debate. While most environmentalists tend to shy away from any conversation related to national security, its important to understand the logic that underpins national policy. If the government makes wise policy decisions, then our water and energy constraints can be managed in a way that impacts less on the environment. Conversely, if government decision-makers fail to understand the environmental linkages to policy choices, we run the risk of positive feedback loops kicking in as we also become capital constrained. After all, capital flows just like water and migrants

(Turton, 2020), so in our collective best interest we need to interrogate sensible policy options before making final decisions that have long-term implications for both people and the ecosystems in which they live. King’s Demographic Trap is of particular relevance, because a rapidly growing population that is also unemployed, produces vast quantities of waste and accelerates the demand for water services. When service delivery fails, the inability of a country to feed itself merely accelerates the loss of social cohesion, which is firmly based on environmental vulnerability. This is an eloquently simple way of understanding the direct linkage between social cohesion and the environment, with changes to the flow of water as an accelerating factor in a positive feedback loop. Abatan, A.A., Abiodun, B.H., New, M., Ujeneza, E.L., Meque, A., Naik, M., Omar, S.A., Lawal, S., Nguvava, M., Gore, M., Molepo, K., Maoyi, M., Roualt, M., Engelbrecht, F. & P Mukwenha, P. 2018. Regionally Extensive Droughts and Climate Change in Southern Africa: Mechanisms, Model Reliability and Projections. WRC Project No. 2317/1/18. Report No. K5/2317. Pretoria:Water Research Commission http://www.wrc.org.za/wp-content/uploads/ mdocs/2317_Final%20Report.pdf Falkenmark, M. 1994.The Dangerous Spiral: Near-future Risks forWater Related Eco-conflicts. In ICRC. 1994. Water andWar. Symposium onWater in Armed Conflicts. Pp 10-28. Montreux, 21-23 November 1994. Geneva: International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Turton, A.R. 2020. Keynote Address of the 2019 International Conference of the Consortium for Comparative Research on Regional Integration and Social Cohesion (RISC), Johannesburg, 4 November 2019. Barriers and Borders – Human Mobility and Building Inclusive Societies. In Regions and Cohesion ,Vol. 10; No. 2. Pp. 87-98. https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/ regions-and-cohesion/10/2/reco100206.xml Prof Anthony Turton Centre for Environmental Management University of the Free State FURTHER READING

17 | African Wildlife & Environment | Issue 79 (2021)