ENTSOG TYNDP 2017 - Annex C1 - Country Specifics

\\ For solar power −0%: peak demand for both electricity and heat arises when it is dark and the sun is not shining. \\ For wind power −10%: this is in line with the European Wind Energy Associa- tion report “Trade Wind, Integrating Wind”. This means that non-intermittent energy sources for power generation (gas, coal, biomass, nuclear) need to be available in peak demand situations. In both the Green Evolution and the Blue Transition scenarios (where gas is as- sumed before coal in the merit order), there will be an increase in demand for gas capacity in the power sector. Only in the Slow Progression scenario will demand for gas capacity decline in this sector, driven by low rates of economic growth and a strong continuing role for coal.

PL (POLAND)

Final gas demand The TSO submitted the inputs for the different scenarios.

The final demand forecast for the Polish market under the Slow Progression scenar- io shows a moderate increase in the residential and industrial sectors. The upward trend in these two sectors is due to gasification of new areas in the country as well as substitution of coal fired-furnaces with the ones supplied with gas. The final demand under the Blue Transition scenario shows a more dynamic in- crease in the residential and industrial sectors in comparison to the Slow Progres- sion and Green Evolution scenarios. The expected difference between scenarios re- sults from enhanced gasification of new regions and a quicker transition from coal to gas in the households. Power generation – general methodology Scenarios about gas demand for power generation are prepared based on knowl- edge about investments in gas capacity in the energy sector. A significant growth in the gas consumption in the electricity sector is anticipated. Gas power generation constitutes only a small fraction of installed power capacity in Poland. In order to meet EU emission policy goals there are a number of Combined Heat and Power Plants that are under construction and under consideration. The projects, where FID is highly likely, are included under the Slow Progression scenar- io. The Blue Transition scenario embraces a higher number of projects, as it reflects favourable market conditions in power generation based on gas. A more moderate approach is applied in the Green Evolution scenario due to the development of renewable sources of supply in the electricity generation.

PT (PORTUGAL)

Final gas demand Regarding the methodology and assumptions that REN has used in 2015 for the de- mand forecast in the three different scenarios, the main drivers for the demand es- timation are national policy, GDP (Gross Domestic Production), GVA (Gross Value Added) of the different sectors of the economy, the available income of the families and the extension of the NG networks in the country. In spite of not applying the assumptions described in the ENTSOG’s story lines in detail and to their full extent, REN considers that the results obtained fulfil ENT- SOG’s request and are in line with the other countries forecasts also. As a result, the forecast of each scenario in the Portuguese case leads to:

14 | Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 Annex C: Demand and Supply, C 1: Country Specifics