Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

SD60

difficult than for vertical integrated utilities and IRPs. Transmission expansion depends on assumptions concerning the future type and location of generation and load. Presentation will address newer models for transmission expansion and cost allocation that could improve the process. 2 - Ongoing Challenges on Wholesale Electricity Market Clearing Yonghong Chen, Midwest ISO, 720 City Center Drive, Carmel, IN, 46032, United States This presentation introduces on-going challenges faced by wholesale electricity market and the R&D efforts to overcome these challenges, especially in the area of improving computational capabilities to incorporate future resources such as storages, distributed energy resources, virtual power plants, etc. 3 - Challenges in Integrating Variable Energy Resources in RTO Markets Khai Le, PCI, Norman, OK, United States This presentation explores the key operating challenges that RTOS are currently facing as more variable energy resources (VERs) are added to their generation mix: ? What are the potential impacts of adding wind & solar resources on system operations and system reliability? ? As more VERs are added, do you have to increase your regulating-reserve requirements to maintain NERC CPS1 and CPS2 requirements? ? What are the potential increases in ancillary-service costs for integrating VERs? 4 - Challenges in Integrating Solar Resources in Large Balancing Areas Mark Oliver, Duke Energy This presentation provides an overview of challenges faced by non-RTO/ISO utilities in meeting NERC balancing requirements while accommodating rapid growth of PURPA solar energy, including forecasting and monitoring of distributed solar energy, investments to improve operational flexibility of the conventional generation fleet, and implications of third party energy “solar plus storage” resources. 5 - Polynomial Time Algorithms and Extended Formulations for Unit Commitment Problems Yongpei Guan, University of Florida, 303 Weil Hall, P.O. Box 116595, Gainesville, FL, 32611, United States, Kai Pan, Kezhou Zhou Unit commitment is fundamental and embedded in the models at different stages of power system operations. In this talk, we present polynomial-time algorithms for the unit commitment problems with a general convex cost function and piecewise linear cost function, respectively. We also report the corresponding extended formulation and further study on its stochastic counterpart. n SD62 West Bldg 103A Joint Session DM/Practice Curated: Data Science in Social Media & Societal Issues Sponsored: Data Mining Sponsored Session Chair: Mohammad Abdollahi, Wayne State University, 4815 Fourth Yuan Song, Tongji University, Room 1413, Tongji Building A, Siping Rd 1500, Shanghai, 200092, China, Shouyi Wang, Hongwei Wang This paper studies the associations between earnings and annual report readability and timeliness based on China’s capital market. Empirical results indicate that firms with higher earnings are likely to disclose their annual reports earlier in a timely manner and smaller document size; the annual reports of firms with lower earnings are later disclosed and harder to read in a larger file size. The results are consistent with both firms reporting a loss and firms with positive earnings. Additionally, among China’s multi-tier capital market system, the annual report readability and timeliness in SHSE are more powerful to explain earnings than in SZMB and SME. 2 - Rethinking Resilience Analytics for Cyber-physical-social Systems David L. Alderson, Naval Postgraduate School, 1411 Cunningham Road, Monterey, CA, 93943, United States, Daniel Eisenberg, Thomas P. Seager The concept of `resilience analytics’ has been proposed to leverage the promise of big data and associated analytic techniques to improve the resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems and the communities supported by them. Given the prevalence of high-profile disasters and advances in data-driven analytic techniques, the temptation to develop resilience analytics without question is almost overwhelming. However, without critical examination of the assumptions and limitations of existing analytics, such efforts may ironically create more brittle cyber-physical-social (CPS) systems from overconfidence, myopia, and/or loss of adaptive or innovative capacity. Street, Room 1067, Detroit, MI, 48202, United States 1 - Annual Report Readability, Timeliness, and Earnings

n SD60 West Bldg 102B Capacity Management in Healthcare Sponsored: Health Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Nan Liu, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, 02467, United States Co-Chair: Pengyi Shi, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, United States 1 - Flexible FDA Approval Policies Taylor Corcoran, UCLA Anderson School of Management, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA, 90024, United States, Fernanda Bravo, Elisa Long The FDA requires clinical trial evidence that is statistically significant at the 2.5% level when approving novel drugs, but the agency often uses regulatory discretion when interpreting these standards. Factors such as target disease severity, prevalence, and availability of existing therapies are qualitatively considered, yet no quantitative framework is used to evaluate how such characteristics impact approval standards. We propose a novel queueing network model to analyze the drug approval process, which explicitly incorporates these factors, as well as obsolescence among drugs. 2 - Coordinated Clinic Surgery Appointment Scheduling: A Multi-stage Stochastic and Distributionally Robust Approach Esmaeil Keyvanshokooh, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, MI, 48108-1020, United States, Pooyan Kazemian, Mark P. Van Oyen Providing timely access to surgery/clinic is crucial for patients with high acuity diseases like cancer. In this paper, we present an integrated multi-stage stochastic and distributionally robust optimization approach for coordinating both clinic and surgery appointments to meet access delay service levels. The methodology is applied to historical hospital data to benchmark its better performance. 3 - An Empirical Investigation on Overflow Decisions in Inpatient Flow and Their Impact on Patient Outcomes Jing Dong, Columbia University, Uris Hall 413, 3022 Broadway, New York, NY, 60208, United States, Pengyi Shi, Fanyin Zheng Using patient level data from a large teaching hospital in Singapore, we study the overflow decision in inpatient flow management and its impact on both individual-level patient outcomes and system-level congestion. We first empirically investigate the causal effect of overflow on inpatient length-of-stay (LOS). Then, we develop a structural model to estimate what factors drive the overflow decision in practice. Finally, motivated by the empirical findings, we use simulations to identify optimal overflow decisions that balance the cost and benefit of overflow. 4 - Balancing the Scale: Readmission Risk at Discharge vs Inpatient Unit Congestion Pengyi Shi, Purdue University, 403 W. State St, Krannert School of Management, Kran 472, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, United States, Jonathan Helm, Jivan Romain Deglise-Hawkinson, Julian Pan Early discharging patients at high inpatient occupancy mitigates the impact of ward overcrowding, but early discharged patients may experience increased readmission risk and other adverse outcomes. In this work, we develop a practical decision support tool to aid hospitals balance between individual discharge risk and ward congestion. We start from building a prediction model that updates the readmission risk over a patient’s stay in the hospital. We then integrate this prediction model into a discharge optimization framework and develop a series of methods to overcome the curse of dimensionality. Lastly, we discuss the ongoing implementation efforts of this discharge optimization tool. n SD61 West Bldg 102C Recent Frontiers on Energy Markets Emerging Topic: Energy and Climate Emerging Topic Session Chair: Feng Qiu, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, 60439, United States 1 - Computational Challenges to ISO Markets and Planning Richard Paul O’Neill, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Silver Spring, MD, United States This presentation will look at the computational challenges in the ISO markets and planning transmission. In ISO markets there is needed for good solutions in a specific time period. Problems can be characterized as MIPs and non-linear optimizations. In ISO markets, the transmission expansion problem is much more

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