Informs Annual Meeting Phoenix 2018

INFORMS Phoenix – 2018

MB49

4 - The Value of Turning-point Detection for Optimal Investment Lars Sendstad, Norway, Michail Dimitriou Understanding the evolution of business cycles is key for investment in renewable energy, since alternative energy technologies are associated with periods of economic growth whose duration depends on disruptive innovations and market saturation. We develop a regime-switching, real options model that facilitates time-varying transition probabilities in order to capture the evolution of economic indicators, and utilize a numerical approach to approximate the value of the investment opportunity. Results indicate that, ignoring the evolution of transition probabilities can result in severe valuation errors. n MB47 North Bldg 229A Joint Session Tutorial/Practice Curated: Tabu and Scatter Search: Principles and Practice Emerging Topic: Practice Curated Track Emerging Topic Session Chair: Rong Pan, Arizona State University, School of Computing Informatics & Decison Sys, P.O. Box 878809, Tempe, AZ, 85287-8809, United States This tutorial focuses on the metaheuristics known as tabu search and scatter search. Tabu search has dramatically changed our ability to solve a host of problems in applied science, business, and engineering. The adaptive memory designs of tabu search have provided useful alternatives and supplements to the types of memory embodied in other metaheuristic approaches. We also explore the evolutionary approach called scatter search, which originated from strategies for creating composite decision rules and surrogate constraints. Numerous studies have demonstrated the practical advantages of this approach for solving a diverse array of optimization. Scatter search contrasts with other evolutionary procedures, such as genetic algorithms, by providing unifying principles for joining solutions based on generalized path constructions and by utilizing strategic designs where other approaches resort to randomization. Additional advantages are provided by intensification and diversification mechanisms that exploit adaptive memory, drawing on foundations that link scatter search to tabu search. We show connections between tabu search and scatter search by demonstrating how they can be applied to many optimization problems found in practice. This tutorial also discusses the search strategy called path relinking, relevant to both tabu and scatter search. Features added to both tabu and scatter search by extension of their basic philosophy are captured in the path relinking framework. From a spatial orientation, the process of generating linear combinations of a set of reference solutions (as typically done in scatter search) may be characterized as generating paths between and beyond these solutions, where solutions on such paths also serve as sources for generating additional paths. This leads to a broader conception of the meaning of creating combinations of solutions. By natural extension, such combinations may be conceived to arise by generating paths between and beyond selected solutions in the neighborhood space. Finally, we highlight key ideas and research issues associated with tabu search, scatter search, and path relinking that offer promise of yielding future advances. n MB48 North Bldg 229B Environment and Sustainability Sponsored: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment Environment & Sustainability Sponsored Session Chair: Sandra D. Eksioglu, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, United States 1 - A Stochastic Biomass Blending Problem Berkay Gulcan, Clemson University, Clemson, SC Blending biomass of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to passively adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a chance constraint optimization model to identify the mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the Thermochemical conversion process. Chance constraints ensure that process requirements are met most of the time, despite the stochastic nature of biomass availability and quality. Our numerical analyses compare process performance under centralized and decentralized decision making framework. 1 - Tabu and Scatter Search: Principles and Practice Manuel Laguna, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States

2 - Gender-based Selection Strategy for Improving Response in Genomic Selection Guiping Hu, Iowa State University, 3014 Black Engineering, Ames, IA, 50011, United States, Megan Wellner, Saba Moeinizade, Lizhi Wang Genomic selection is a technique that breeders use to select plants or animals to mate and produce new generations of species. We propose a gender-based selection strategy, which was inspired by how two genders of wild animals take different roles in fighting for food and caring for their offspring. Our selection approach selects individuals with the highest short-term achievement as male, and then select individuals that are the most complementary to the male . We will present simulation results that compare the performance of the new approach against the state-of- the-art approaches in the literature. 3 - Economic Evaluation of Biofuel Production in Hot Spots Identified for Hydroclimatic Sustainability Nathan Parker, Assistant Professor, Arizona State University, 800 South Cady Mall, Tempe, AZ, 85281, United States, Nazli Uludere Aragon The sustainability of the spatial configuration of bioenergy crop production in the US is evaluated for economic and hydroclimatic impacts using a location- allocation model for biofuel industry linked to results of hydroclimatic model and a crop growth model. Converting existing land uses to bioenergy crops can reduce near-surface temperatures but pose a risk of excessive water withdrawals. A system that provides local cooling without a reduction in soil moisture that can support a biofuel industry is found in two regions of the country. Planning Models in the Petrochemicals Sector Sponsored: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment/Natural Resources Petrochemicals Sponsored Session Chair: Ajit Gopalakrishnan, Air Liquide, Newark, DE, 19702, United States 1 - Pooling Problems under Perfect and Imperfect Competition Dimitri Papageorgiou, ExxonMobil Research & Engineering, 1545 Route 22 East, Annandale, NJ, 08886, United States, Francisco Trespalacios, Stuart Harwood We investigate pooling problems in which multiple players vie with one another to maximize individual profit in a competitive market. Each player controls a processing network involving intermediate tanks (or pools) where raw materials are blended together before being further combined into final products. Each player then solves a pure or mixed-integer bilinear optimization problem whose profit is influenced by other players. We present several bi-level formulations and numerical results of a novel decomposition algorithm. 2 - A Large-scale MILP for Shale Gas Development Planning Nathan Blandino, EQT Corporation, 625 Liberty Avenue, Suite 1700, Pittsburgh, PA, 15222, United States, Markus Gustav Drouven No abtract available 3 - An Integrated International Oil and Gas Supply Model Tuncay Ugur Alparslan, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 20009, United States To improve its analytic capabilities, The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is currently upgrading its primary modeling tool for its projections for international energy markets, which is used to produce the annual International Energy Outlook (IEO), which provides valueable information to policy makers and other stakeholders. These efforts include simulating the global hydrocarbon supply via a new upstream integrated resource model, a new refining model, and a logistics network model. Combined, these three make up the new Global Hydrocarbon Supply Model (GHySMo). Scenario analysis using preliminary results from the integrated model will be the focus of this talk. 4 - The New Role of Norwegian Gas in Europe Asgeir Tomasgard, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Dept. of Industrial Economics, Alfred getz vei 3, Trondheim, 7491, Norway, Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, Rudolf Gerardus Egging The European energy system is in a restructuring process where larges investments in intermittent renewable power generation are made. The volume of gas exported from the Norwegian continental shelf is foreseen to decrease. The changes in capacity and demand may open new commercial opportunities. Short- term and long-term uncertainties will affect how to maximize the value of Norwegian gas and contribute to the restructuring of the green energy system. We will use multi-horizon stochastic programming to analyze solutions related to capacity services based on Norwegian natural gas exports. n MB49 North Bldg 230

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